Is Florida Melting?

Apr 28, 2025

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On today’s show we are looking at the residential homes for sale inventory across several markets in Florida. We have been experiencing the so-called lock in effect with many owners holding onto very favourable loans at historically low interest rates.

Even if someone needs to move, they will often rent out their primary residence and then rent a home instead of buying rather than sell and be forced to pay a much higher interest rate when buying a new home.

There are signs that the lock-in effect is now starting to wane somewhat and the number of homes for sale is rising rapidly in several markets across the US.

The reason we want to look at this is because the residential market does contribute to rental stock. In the condo market in particular, we see a large proportion of condos being offered for rent by owners of single units or small portfolios. The conventional wisdom is that somewhere between 20-25% of the condo market will contribute to rental market inventory.

Markets that used to be hotspots like in Florida have seen a near meltdown in demand. The condo townhouse market in Florida is experiencing 9.7 months of supply. We often hear about the challenges in the coastal markets. But Orlando’s inventory in April 2025 is about 30–40% higher than April 2024, reflecting a substantial increase in available homes. The market has shifted to a buyer’s market, with a 7.73-month supply in January 2025, driven by high new listings and slower sales

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