NatSec Matters Regime Change, Drug War or Stalemate?: David Shedd & Jana Nelson
Dec 10, 2025
David Shedd, former acting director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, and Jana Nelson, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Western Hemisphere Affairs, dive into the controversial U.S. military strategy regarding Venezuela. They analyze the implications of potential strikes on narcotraffickers and the Maduro regime. The duo debates the effectiveness of air campaigns, the role of Venezuelan cartels, and regional reactions to U.S. tactics. They also discuss the influence of Chinese and Russian interests in Latin America and how domestic politics shape these decisions.
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Escalation Remains A Real Possibility
- The U.S. is at an inflection point where escalation against Venezuela is plausible rather than unlikely.
- David Shedd believes strikes on narco-related targets inside Venezuela are entirely possible next steps.
Maximum Pressure May Become A Stalemate
- Jana Nelson predicts the current approach is a military form of "maximum pressure" that will likely produce a stalemate.
- She doubts the administration has legal authority or appetite for full-scale land strikes inside Venezuela.
Target Narco Infrastructure, Not Capital Centers
- If the U.S. acts, planners will prioritize narco-trafficking infrastructure to minimize high-profile casualties.
- Expect strikes on airstrips, arms factories, and remote military sites rather than central leadership locales.