The Asia Chessboard Trade Policy and U.S. Geopolitical Strategy
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Oct 21, 2025 Mike chats with Barbara Weisel, a former trade negotiator with over two decades at the U.S. Trade Representative and a current scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. They dive into the complexities of U.S. trade policy, including the rise and fall of TPP and the challenges of communicating its benefits. Barbara discusses the implications of current tariffs and the need for a trade strategy that incorporates economic security. They also explore how allies can navigate relationships with the U.S. amid shifting geopolitical landscapes.
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TPP's Fate Turned On 2016 Politics
- Barbara Weisel recounts how political change in 2016 made TPP's continuation uncertain despite prior momentum.
- She believes Hillary Clinton likely would have kept the U.S. in TPP while seeking specific changes.
Messaging, Not Just Timing, Sank Support
- Weisel says new administrations must review inherited trade projects and that delay alone didn't doom TPP.
- She argues weak public economic messaging and shifting China framing undermined support.
Quantify Policy Certainty Benefits
- Use broader economic analyses like ITC estimates of reduced policy uncertainty to sell trade deals.
- Quantify regulatory and predictability benefits, not only tariff elimination, to persuade stakeholders.