Consumer Packaged Goods, GLP-1s, and Big Tech as the New Staples
Oct 18, 2023
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The podcast discusses the impact of GLP-1 agonists on consumer packaged goods (CPG) sector. It explores the resilience of CPG companies and their struggles with declining volumes. The scientific validity and medical implications of GLP-1s are also explored. The challenges faced by CPG companies and the rise of big tech companies as new market staples are discussed. The chapter also explores investment strategies in inflationary times.
The decline in volumes and higher valuations in the consumer packaged goods (CPG) sector may be attributed to factors like GLP-1s and competition from private label products.
Consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies are facing challenges such as declining volumes, competition, and changing consumer preferences.
Big-cap tech companies are emerging as potential new staples for investors, as traditional staples lose appeal due to inflation concerns and shifting consumer trends.
Deep dives
GLP1s and the Market Sell-Off
GLP1s, drugs used for treating diabetes with weight loss effects, have been blamed for recent market sell-offs in the consumer staples and healthcare sectors. However, the sell-off might not be solely attributed to GLP1s, but also to declining volumes and higher valuations in the industry. Companies in the consumer packaged goods space are facing declining volumes and losing market share to private label and replacement products. While GLP1s may have impact and hurt expectations for the space, they are not the only factor affecting it, and the sector could face additional headwinds. Valuations of these companies remain high, despite the recent sell-off, which calls for caution when considering investments.
Challenges Faced by Consumer Packaged Goods Companies
Consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies are facing several challenges, including declining volumes, competition from private label and replacement products, and the need to make tough choices to maintain profitability. Higher prices of key inputs and declining volumes have negative margin consequences for these companies. While they have effectively pushed on price, they are experiencing low single-digit volume declines and losing market share. At the same time, the high valuations and the perception of being bond proxies have added to their challenges. The emerging trends of health-conscious diets and changing consumer preferences pose further threats to the CPG sector.
Shifting Investment Climate
The investment climate is undergoing significant changes, driven by factors such as inflation concerns, rising interest rates, and shifting consumer trends. With the increasing availability of better investment options, the traditional appeal of staples as bond proxies is fading. Investors are seeking alternative investments, with big-cap tech companies emerging as potential new staples due to their strong market presence and growth prospects. However, the difficulty in valuing equities and predicting the long-term implications of inflation and interest rates is making investment decisions more challenging.
Uncertain Future for CPG Companies
Consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies are facing an uncertain future due to various factors, including increased competition, changing consumer preferences, and higher valuations. The emergence of challenger brands and startups has disrupted the dominance of established CPG companies. Moreover, the decline in volumes and margin consequences, coupled with the challenges of defending market share and managing pricing, pose significant hurdles for the sector. The longevity of CPG companies is also in question, as demographic shifts and evolving health trends continue to impact consumer behavior and preferences.
Alternative Investments in the Face of Uncertainty
Amidst uncertainty in markets, investors are seeking alternative investment opportunities that can provide stable returns and hedge against inflation. Real assets, such as real estate and other tangible assets, are gaining attention as potential investment avenues. These assets offer the potential for attractive cash flows, dividend yields, and growth opportunities. With concerns about inflation and the need to ensure long-term value preservation, real assets are seen as a potentially attractive option. However, investors should carefully evaluate each opportunity and consider the unique risks and characteristics associated with real asset investments.
In this episode, co-hosts Elliot Turner, Phil Ordway, and John Mihaljevic discuss pricing and volume in the consumer packaged goods (CPG) sector, the impact of GLP-1 agonists, and whether big tech should be seen as the new staples.
Enjoy the conversation!
The primary purpose of this podcast is to educate and inform. The views, information, or opinions expressed by hosts or guests are their own. Neither this show, nor any of its content should be construed as investment advice or as a recommendation to buy or sell any particular security. Security specific information shared on this podcast should not be relied upon as a basis for your own investment decisions -- be sure to do your own research. The podcast hosts and participants may have a position in the securities mentioned, personally, through sub accounts and/or through separate funds and may change their holdings at any time.
About the Co-Hosts:
Elliot Turner is a co-founder and Managing Partner, CIO at RGA Investment Advisors, LLC. RGA Investment Advisors runs a long-term, low turnover, growth at a reasonable price investment strategy seeking out global opportunities. Elliot focuses on discovering and analyzing long-term, high quality investment opportunities and strategic portfolio management. Prior to joining RGA, Elliot managed portfolios at at AustinWeston Asset Management LLC, Chimera Securities and T3 Capital. Elliot holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation as well as a Juris Doctor from Brooklyn Law School.. He also holds a Bachelor of Arts degree from Emory University where he double majored in Political Science and Philosophy.
Philip Ordway is Managing Principal and Portfolio Manager of Anabatic Fund, L.P. Previously, Philip was a partner at Chicago Fundamental Investment Partners (CFIP). At CFIP, which he joined in 2007, Philip was responsible for investments across the capital structure in various industries. Prior to joining CFIP, Philip was an analyst in structured corporate finance with Citigroup Global Markets, Inc. from 2002 to 2005. Philip earned his B.S. in Education & Social Policy and Economics from Northwestern University in 2002 and his M.B.A. from the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University in 2007, where he now serves as an Adjunct Professor in the Finance Department.
John Mihaljevic leads MOI Global and serves as managing editor of The Manual of Ideas. He managed a private partnership, Mihaljevic Partners LP, from 2005-2016. John is a winner of the Value Investors Club’s prize for best investment idea. He is a trained capital allocator, having studied under Yale University Chief Investment Officer David Swensen and served as Research Assistant to Nobel Laureate James Tobin. John holds a BA in Economics, summa cum laude, from Yale and is a CFA charterholder.
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