Establish The Run Fantasy Football
How To Beat NFL Player Props with Adam Levitan, Drew Dinkmeyer, and Cort Smith (Episode 621)
Sep 5, 2023
Adam Levitan, Drew Dinkmeyer, and Cort Smith explore the world of NFL player prop betting in this episode. They discuss the edge in player props, utilizing projections, best books for liquidity, when to bet, differences in markets, and the importance of simulations. The speakers emphasize a blend of quantitative analysis and domain expertise as key to winning in player props. They also highlight the challenges of disguising plays to avoid restrictions and the significance of unit counts in prop betting.
34:52
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Quick takeaways
- Player props offer a larger edge than sides and totals due to higher variance and opportunities in the props market.
- Understanding marketplace dynamics and utilizing accurate projections are key to finding value and winning in player props betting.
Deep dives
The Edge in Player Props
The podcast discusses why player props offer a larger edge than sides and totals. Individual player performance is more likely to be impacted by news or situations, leading to more variance and opportunities in the props market. The props market covers a wide range of options, resulting in lower liquidity and more opportunistic betting. The discussion highlights the importance of understanding mean, median, and over/under concepts in player props.
