American Monetary Association 357: Leslie Appleton-Young, Chief Economist of the California Association of Realtors CAR
Jason Hartman speaks with Leslie Appleton-Young, vice-president and chief economist for the California Association of Realtors. Leslie brings several charts and graphs to the conversation to share some staggering movement in California's real estate. In January, 2020 was shaping up to be a knock out year, but due to the Coronavirus pandemic, we are now looking at best for a quick recovery. Leslie and Jason draw correlations between the 2008 recession and recovery to the recent, seemingly, self-imposed recession.
As well, Leslie shares data to support buyer/seller trends as emotions shift from the COVID-19 impact. The question continues to go unanswered, how will malls, retail space, and hotels change post coronavirus?
Key Takeaways:
[7:30] Jason and Leslie discuss predictions based on the Q2 hit in 2020, ranging from a 25% - 42% decline.
[9:00] The buy-side of real estate is doing well, likely because of record low interest rates, more space needed for home offices, and more space desired in quarantine times.
[15:30] In January, the 2020 expectation was to be a great year based on some standard metrics.
[16:20] We have not had a breakout market since the 2008 recession due to income and affordability restraints.
[19:00] The virus and the government's response are two major contributing factors to set the tone for sellers and the recovery of the real estate market.
[20:15] What is the general tone of California, are people staying or going?
[24:45] We've seen a considerable adaptation of technology in the real estate industry.
[30:00] Buyers feel a sense of urgency without expecting deals, while sellers are reluctant to lower their prices.
[35:30] Jason and Leslie discuss the lack of supply and the building restrictions as one of the leading causes for a reduced amount of new homes being built.
[38:00] How could malls, retail space, and hotels change into residential units for affordable housing, senior centers, or homeless shelters?
[40:30] What shape will the recovery take on? V, square root, swoosh, or W?
[43:00] The work-from-home order will likely be huge for housing.
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