Intercepted: The Civil and Proxy War Reignites in Syria
Dec 3, 2024
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Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, a historian and translator specializing in jihadist groups, dives deep into the complex dynamics of Syria's conflict. He discusses how Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has attempted to redefine itself from its extremist roots. The conversation explores the rapid changes in Aleppo, and contrasts the governance styles of HTS and ISIS. Al-Tamimi also addresses the intricate relationships involving the U.S., Turkey, and local factions and sheds light on the human impact of war through personal stories from Aleppo. Stay tuned for rich insights!
Israel's ongoing military aggression in Gaza and Lebanon illustrates a troubling trend of escalating violence facilitated by U.S. diplomatic actions.
The rapid takeover of Aleppo by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham reveals the Syrian government's unpreparedness against organized armed opposition amid intensifying conflict.
HTS's rebranding efforts under Abu Muhammad al-Jolani indicate a strategic shift towards legitimacy, complicating perceptions of their human rights record among citizens.
Deep dives
Escalation of Conflict and Ceasefire Violations
Israel's military aggression against Gaza and Lebanon has escalated, with a ceasefire that primarily affects Hezbollah while Israel continues its attacks. The UN has recorded over 100 violations by Israel, signaling a relentless campaign in southern Lebanon. As tensions rise, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicates intentions to intensify military actions further, demonstrating a pattern where Israel claims self-defense while framing opposition attacks as violations. This situation reflects the predictability of escalated violence following U.S. facilitation of agreements that seemingly support Israeli military actions.
Rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Syria
Armed opposition forces, principally led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), recently advanced into Syria's Aleppo, encountering little resistance from government forces. This offensive, termed 'Detering the Aggression,' aimed to push back against increasing Syrian aerial assaults, resulting in a swift takeover of the city. The context of this event highlights a lack of preparation on the Syrian government's side, which was unprepared for a large-scale insurgent response. The rapid collapse of government defenses in Aleppo draws parallels with previous international conflicts involving unexpected assaults.
Complexity of Syrian Civil War Dynamics
The Syrian civil war is marked by the involvement of numerous external actors, complicating the narrative around the current clashes in Aleppo. Beyond the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, underlying factors such as the historical brutality of the Assad regime and the impact of international proxies complicate the situation. The Syrian conflict has led to staggering civilian casualties, with millions displaced, creating a multifaceted crisis exacerbated by foreign interventions. Analysts argue against oversimplified interpretations that overlook the agency of Syrian citizens and the historical context of their struggles.
U.S. Influence and Regime Change Efforts
The U.S. has historically been involved in the Syrian civil war with a focus on undermining the Assad government, albeit indirectly. Sanctions and covert support for opposition groups have characterized U.S. involvement, yet the repercussions of regime change have been debated within U.S. policy circles due to potential destabilization risks. The relationship between U.S. interests and opposition forces, including groups with ties to extremist organizations, remains a contentious issue. This complex dynamic underscores America's broader role as a destabilizing force in the Middle East, often lacking a cohesive strategy.
HTS Leadership and Governance in Idlib
Dr. Ayman Jawad al-Tamimi highlights the evolution of HTS under the leadership of Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, who has distanced the group from its extremist origins. Al-Jolani's strategy involves presenting HTS as a legitimate governing entity that operates within the existing state structure, diverging from the more radical approaches of ISIS. The organization has strived to consolidate power in Idlib, implementing civil services while employing authoritarian governance tactics. This rebranding effort, however, does not erase the group's history of human rights abuses, raising questions about its legitimacy among local populations.
Joe Biden has just weeks left in his presidency. Israel’s genocidal war against Gaza is continuing at full force. In Lebanon, the so-called ceasefire was one-sided by U.S. design, meant to require only Hezbollah to cease its fire. A U.N. peacekeeping force official told CNN Tuesday that Israel had committed roughly 100 violations of the ceasefire, including gradually intensifying military strikes in southern Lebanon. After several days of Israeli attacks, Hezbollah fired back what it said was a warning to Israel. And now Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is saying he is going to escalate even further.
In the midst of all of this, in Syria, armed opposition forces seeking to topple the government of Bashar al-Assad stunned the region when they marched into Syria’s second largest city, Aleppo, and encountered almost no resistance from the Syrian armed forces or their allies. That operation was led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or the Organization for the Liberation of the Levant, which the U.S. government has classified as a terror organization. HTS has its origins in ISIS and Al Qaeda, though the group’s leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani has spent years seeking to rebrand HTS as a national liberation front that is no longer affiliated with either Al Qaeda or ISIS. While the events in Syria unfold against the backdrop of the U.S.-facilitated Israeli wars in Gaza and Lebanon, there are many factors that led to this moment in Syria. On the new episode of Drop Site News's podcast Intercepted, Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, a historian who focuses on jihadist groups in Iraq and Syria, joins Jeremy Scahill for a wide-ranging discussion on the unfolding situation.
This episode is a production of Drop Site News, brought to you, in part, by a grant from The Intercept. This episode was originally published at Drop Site News on December 3, 2024.