EP 26: The Rise Of Carry (with Tim Lee & Kevin Coldiron)
Jun 18, 2024
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Tim Lee and Kevin Coldiron discuss the impact of carry trades on emerging markets, implementation of transaction taxes in Latin America, and the repercussions of central bank interventions on carry trading and future monetary policy.
Carry trades rely on low volatility for success, posing systemic risks if central banks intervene inadequately.
Speculative capital from carry trades hinders emerging markets' stability, suggesting transaction taxes and capital controls as preventative measures.
Deep dives
Overview of the Library of Mistakes Podcast
The podcast episode introduces the Library of Mistakes, a collection housing over 4,000 books on repeated errors in finance and business. The discussion revolves around a book titled 'The Rise of Cary' that delves into the consequences of volatility suppression in financial markets. The book highlights that carry trades are reliant on volatility remaining low, showcasing examples like currency trading and selling put options. Moreover, it points out that leveraged positions amplify the risks associated with carry trades.
Implications of Carry Trades and Central Banks
Carry trades, primarily undertaken by hedge funds, are characterized by leveraging positions to benefit from yield spreads. The podcast notes hedge funds' attraction to carry trades due to accruing profits on most occasions. It further emphasizes how central banks intervene to stabilize markets when carry trades face crises, indicating potential systemic risks if these institutions fail. The suppression of volatility by central banks plays a crucial role in the expansion of carry trades by limiting losses.
Impact on Emerging Markets and Monetary Policies
The discussion extends to how carry trades affect emerging markets, causing overvaluation of currencies and misallocation of resources. The emergence of speculative capital due to carry trades challenges the ability of central banks in these markets to manage their economic stability. Strategies such as transaction taxes and capital controls are considered as potential solutions to deter speculative inflows and minimize risks associated with carry trades.
Carry Trades and Economic Growth
The episode concludes by examining how carry trades' prevalence undermines economic growth through misallocation of resources and tendencies towards deflation. The increased debt levels associated with leveraged carry trades and speculative investments hinder actual productive investments, impacting long-term growth prospects. The hosts speculate on the continued relevance of carry trades, highlighting the need for potential shifts in monetary policy frameworks to address systemic risks posed by these practices.
Russell Napier revisits a book that slipped out during the pandemic crisis but does, he believe, deserve considerable attention. Listen to him quizzing Tim Lee and Kevin Coldiron, two of the authors of The Rise of Carry: The Dangerous Consequences of Volatility Suppression and the New Financial Order of Decaying Growth and Recurring Crisis.
•The Library of Mistakes runs an outstanding course called the Practical History of Financial Markets. To find out more, go to: www.libraryofmistakes.com/course
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