'Putin has become a caricature of himself’: Understanding Russia with Mark Galeotti
Feb 10, 2024
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Leading expert on Russian history and security, Mark Galeotti, discusses the current issues faced by ordinary Russians, including high food prices and low wages. He also explores the unity within the Russian Federation, Putin's ruling style, and the media's portrayal of Russia. The podcast delves into Dimitri Mediadev's statements, Putin's inner circle, and the upcoming presidential election in Russia.
Putin's legacy will be that of a disastrous leader who bankrupted and weakened Russia in pursuit of becoming a great power.
The mutiny led by Progoshin revealed a lack of awareness and loyalty within Putin's regime.
Russian elections serve as a legitimizing ritual for Putin's regime, using tactics to ensure a predetermined outcome and maintain the appearance of legitimacy.
Deep dives
The Legacy of Putin's Rule
Putin's legacy will likely be that of a disastrous and tragic transitional figure, who tried to place himself among the great Russian state building heroes. He will be seen as a leader who bankrupted and weakened Russia in pursuit of becoming a strong great power. His regime will be remembered for its moral pragmatism and rampant corruption. However, his successors, driven by self-interest and the need to secure their wealth, may bring about a shift towards the rule of law and a desire to reintegrate Russia into the global system.
The Failed Mutiny and Putin's Missteps
The mutiny led by Progoshin was a personal attempt to coerce Putin into changing his mind on the war in Ukraine. However, it was also a systemic failure of the Putin regime. Putin's insulation from critical voices within his elite led to a lack of awareness and poor decision-making on his part. The mutiny also revealed a lack of loyalty within the security apparatus, as they were neither supportive nor proactive in stopping it. Putin's subsequent betrayal of Progoshin marked a departure from his usual loyalty to insiders and caused shock within the elite.
Elections as a Legitimizing Ritual
Russian elections serve as a legitimizing ritual for Putin's regime. The outcome is predetermined, but what matters is the ease with which the state can make the results appear legitimate to the Russian people. Tactics such as excluding real opposition, presenting weak rival candidates, and offering pre-election sweeteners are used to ensure a desired outcome. The effectiveness of stage-managing the elections and maintaining the appearance of legitimacy is crucial for Putin's control and the regime's stability.
Russian Perspectives and Misconceptions
Russian perspectives on the West are complex. Russians consider themselves Europeans and feel unfairly excluded by the West. They admire Western qualities while believing that the West has lost its soul. There is a deep-seated sense of conspiracy and suspicion towards the West. Misconceptions include thinking that the West is more organized and centrally controlled than it actually is. Russians often see Western media coverage as part of a grand plot against them. Effective communication, understanding, and outreach to ordinary Russians are important for countering these misconceptions and building better relations.
Looking Beyond the War and Engaging with Russia
While the war in Ukraine is a primary focus, it is essential to look towards the future and think about long-term engagement with Russia. Understanding the motivations of the next generation of Russian leaders who are driven by self-interest and wealth preservation is crucial. Supporting Ukraine is important, but efforts should also be made to isolate Putin from his people, undermine his propaganda, and build connections with ordinary Russians. In the long term, Russia will still be a significant presence that needs to be engaged with and understood.
Dr Mark Galeotti is a leading expert on Russian history and security. He runs the influential and fascinating podcast and blog ‘In Moscow’s Shadows and is the Director of the consultancy firm Mayak Intelligence and also an Honorary Professor at UCL School of Slavonic & East European Studies and a Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI.
We wanted to hear from Galeotti himself about Russian society, politics and statecraft. Without further ado, here’s David Knowles' conversation.
