Markets Face Headwinds in First Half of 2024: Barry Knapp, Ironsides Macroeconomics

This episode was recorded on Jan. 8, 2024, and made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or announcements. For details on how to become a premium subscriber (it's very easy), visit our Substack or Supercast.

Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics rejoins the podcast to discuss his outlook for the economy and markets in 2024.

• Knapp's outlook for 2023 played out until September. Then the Fed changed the rules of the game somewhat and markets now face a difficult period... (3:29);
• Investors are expecting a recovery in earnings, which may be hard to achieve (7:00);
• The drop in inflation can be traced to one cause: a deflationary shock in goods prices (8:57);
• How the Fed can justify interest rates as soon as March... (11:36);
• Why bonds haven't continued to rally this year (16:58);
• The Fed will cut to 4% by year-end and the yield curve should dis-invert with 10-year Treasury yields rising to 4.5% (22:06);
• Fed independence is taken for granted. That may be about to change... (28:35);
• Only four occasions post WWII have seen yield curve inversions this deep. All have led to major recessions... (36:40);
• How do stocks look in this whole picture (40:31)

• Website and newsletter: IronsidesMacro.substack.com;
• Twitter: @BarryKnapp.