Market Mover La Borsa di Tokyo e il “Takaishi trade”
Oct 7, 2025
Vito Lops, a market analyst, dives into the impact of Japan's new premier on fiscal policy and market dynamics. He explains the 'Takaishi trade' and the enthusiastic investor reaction to anticipated fiscal expansion. The discussion covers the surge of the Nikkei, yen depreciation, and the effects on export-heavy firms. Vito also addresses concerns around Japan's high public debt and the implications of rising yields, warning about potential global market contagion amidst current asset euphoria.
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Fiscal Expansion Spurs Stocks And Bond Volatility
- The market cheered fiscal expansion because investors expect higher growth and inflation to boost corporate profits.
- Rising yields reflect bond selling as investors demand higher term premia for long Japanese debt.
Bond Selling Signals Inflation Expectations
- Investors sold Japanese government bonds anticipating more inflation, pushing long-term yields higher.
- The yield rise signals a re-pricing of long-term risk premia on Japan's debt curve.
Yen Weakness Fuels Carry Trades
- The yen fell sharply, which fuels carry trades and makes Japanese assets attractive to international investors.
- A weaker yen lowers the local cost of previously contracted yen debt for carry traders, easing near-term pressure.