This episode features Nitin A. Gokhale, one of South Asia’s leading strategic affairs analysts, who joins co-hosts Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to break down the ongoing conflict along the India-Pakistan border, offering expert insight into its origins, recent triggers and global stakes.

The conflict’s roots trace back to the 1947 partition of India and the disputed territory of Jammu and Kashmir, which has sparked four wars between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. Tensions reignited recently after a terrorist attack in Kashmir, where militants targeted and killed Hindu tourists. Pakistani terrorist groups such as Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed are allegedly supported by the Pakistani military and intelligence services.

In retaliation, India conducted strikes against terrorist camps in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and, for the first time, across the Kashmir border into Pakistan’s homeland. India emphasized that its response was targeted, non-escalatory, and focused solely on terrorist infrastructure, aiming to avoid a broader military confrontation.

Gokhale explains that Pakistan’s internal instability--including insurgencies in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, strained relations with the Taliban and political unrest--may have influenced the timing of the attack. The Pakistani military, facing low public confidence and political challenges, may have sought to rally domestic support by provoking a crisis with India.

With both countries possessing nuclear weapons, the stakes are high. Gokhale suggests that international pressure and Pakistan’s internal weaknesses could create an off-ramp for de-escalation. India’s careful messaging and restraint are designed to reinforce deterrence without inviting a full-scale war.

The discussion explores the influence of China, Russia, the United States, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. While India insists on bilateral solutions, outside actors may quietly urge restraint to protect their own interests in regional stability and economic ties.

The episode delves into the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, a critical agreement for Pakistan’s agriculture. India’s move to withhold hydrological data and potentially control water flows adds another layer of pressure on Pakistan.

Gokhale contextualizes India’s actions within Prime Minister Modi’s security philosophy: resolute on the border, reasonable in diplomacy. Modi’s approach favors decisive retaliation against cross-border terrorism while avoiding unnecessary escalation.

The India-Pakistan border conflict is not just a regional issue–it has global implications due to the risk of nuclear escalation, the involvement of major powers and the precedent it sets for responding to state-sponsored terrorism. Understanding the dynamics at play is essential for anyone interested in international security, South Asian geopolitics or global peace.

👉 Follow Nitin's analysis of this conflict and South Asia security at StratNewsGlobal.com, or check out his book, Securing India the Modi Way.

🔥 Sponsored by BowerGroupAsia, a strategic advisory firm that specializes in the Indo-Pacific.

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