The podcast explores the challenges of preserving a democratic Taiwan amidst rising tensions with China. It analyzes the upcoming presidential election and its significance in relation to Taiwan's relationship with China. The episode also discusses Taiwan's diplomatic relationships, the limitations faced by Taiwan and US officials in freely visiting each other, and Taiwan's approach to China. It delves into the controversy over exporting chip making in Taiwan and explores Taiwan's view on the relationship with China and the risks of war. The chapter also discusses China's stance on Taiwan's election and its impact on the global economy.
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Quick takeaways
The upcoming presidential election in Taiwan is centered around the key issue of how Taiwan should handle its relationship with China, with the ruling party advocating for maintaining the status quo and strengthening defense capabilities, while the opposition candidates call for increased dialogue.
The potential escalation of tensions between Taiwan and China has global implications, with concerns about the US's commitment to Taiwan's defense and the impact of chip-making operations moving out of Taiwan on international support.
Deep dives
The Importance of Taiwan's Election in the Face of China's Threats
The upcoming presidential election in Taiwan holds significant importance due to fears of escalating tensions with China. One of the key issues at stake is whether Taiwan can maintain its democratic DNA and keep Beijing at bay. The ruling party's presidential candidate, current Vice President Lai Ching-te, is favored in the polls and aims to continue Taiwan's path of engagement and cooperation with the international community while strengthening its military capacity. The opposition candidates, on the other hand, advocate for increased dialogue and exchanges with China. The election is seen as a choice between peace and democracy, versus potential conflict with China. Taiwan's chip-making capability, a critical sector for its economy, also comes into play. The US is encouraging TSMC, a major chip maker, to have operations outside of Taiwan as a safeguard against a potential escalation of tensions. However, moving chip making out of Taiwan raises concerns about whether the US would still come to Taiwan's aid if it were needed. The next president of Taiwan will have the challenging task of preserving the status quo, avoiding provocations, and being prepared to defend Taiwan if necessary.
The Fragile Relationship Between Taiwan and China
The relationship between Taiwan and China is complex and fragile. China considers Taiwan a breakaway province that will eventually be absorbed into the mainland, while Taiwan sees itself as a democratically independent sovereign entity. The central issue in the presidential election is how Taiwan should handle its relationship with China going forward. The ruling party, DPP, led by Vice President Lai Ching-te, advocates for maintaining the status quo and strengthening Taiwan's defense capabilities to deter threats from China. The opposition candidates have different interpretations of the status quo, with some calling for increased dialogue and exchanges with China. The international community watches their words carefully, as any perceived change in Taiwan's status or response to provocations from China could escalate tensions. Efforts are made to preserve peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region and avoid the possibility of war across the Taiwan Strait.
Global Concerns and Support for Taiwan
The international community closely watches the situation in Taiwan, as the potential escalation of tensions between Taiwan and China has global implications. The US, in particular, plays a significant role in supporting Taiwan. While President Joe Biden has stated that the US would defend Taiwan, the ambiguity of the US's one China policy poses challenges. Taiwan has official allies, but their numbers have dwindled as China exerts pressure on other countries. The current administration of President Tsai Ing-wen has sought informal friendships with like-minded democracies, such as Japan, Australia, and possibly South Korea, to strengthen support for Taiwan. Europe has also shown increased interest in supporting Taiwan. However, there are concerns regarding the US's commitment to Taiwan's defense and whether chip-making operations moving out of Taiwan would affect international support. Taiwanese people have mixed opinions on exporting chip-making, with some seeing it as a positive sign of Taiwan's economic strength and significance in the global tech supply chain, while others worry about the potential US skepticism and loss of support.
Taiwan's Future and the Need for a Steady Hand
The next president of Taiwan faces the challenge of maintaining stability and peace while navigating the complex relationship with China. Vice President Lai Ching-te, the ruling party's presidential candidate, emphasizes the importance of peace and prosperity, as well as Taiwan's responsibility to give back to the international community. He aims to strengthen Taiwan's civil and national defense capability, standing shoulder to shoulder with democracies to effectively deter threats from China. Lai commits to maintaining the status quo and avoiding provocations, seeking a peaceful resolution. While concerns exist about provocative comments he has made in the past regarding Taiwan's independence, he reassures that there will be no immediate changes and that he will maintain the name Republic of China, as used by President Tsai Ing-wen. The continuity of policies that prioritize dialogue with Beijing and a defense-ready stance underpins Lai's platform, as he strives to be a steady leader in maintaining Taiwan's democratic values and prosperity.
We're taking a break this week, here's an episode you might have missed.
Taiwan’s current Vice President, Lai Ching-te, leads the polls in the upcoming January presidential election. The winner will have a lot to contend with–and at the top of the list is how to keep the peace with China amid rising tensions. Bloomberg Businessweek editor Joel Weber sat down with Vice President Lai for several wide-ranging interviews in Taiwan.
Joel and Taipei deputy bureau chief Cindy Wang join this episode to talk about the challenges the next president will face in preserving a democratic Taiwan, and public concerns about the possibility of military conflict with China.
This episode was produced by: Supervising Producer: Vicki Vergolina, Senior Producer: Kathryn Fink, Producers: Michael Falero and Mo Barrow Sound Design/Engineer: Gilda Garcia.