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Ukraine war, three years on
Feb 24, 2025
Katy Balls, Political editor at The Spectator, and Keir Giles, a senior fellow at Chatham House specializing in Russian policy, dive deep into the complexities of the Ukraine war on its three-year anniversary. They discuss how initial predictions of a quick Russian victory have evolved into a drawn-out conflict with significant shifts in U.S. strategy. The conversation touches on the faltering transatlantic alliance, Europe's scrambling to adapt, and the pressing question of who will defend Europe as political landscapes shift dramatically.
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Quick takeaways
- The protracted conflict in Ukraine has shifted expectations from a swift Russian victory to a complex war of attrition that remains unpredictable.
- The U.S. pivot to back-channel peace talks with Russia has left Europe grappling with a fractured consensus on Ukraine and increased defense challenges.
Deep dives
Understanding the Phases of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
The Russia-Ukraine war has progressed through several distinct phases, contrary to initial expectations of a quick Russian victory. Starting with surprising Ukrainian defenses that repelled Russian advances, the conflict evolved into a prolonged phase of attrition over the past year. A significant recent development has been the shift in the United States' stance, moving from a supportive role for Ukraine to acting as an enforcer for Russia, complicating the situation further. This unexpected turn highlights the challenges faced by Europe in adapting to the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
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