Katy Balls, Political editor at The Spectator, and Keir Giles, a senior fellow at Chatham House specializing in Russian policy, dive deep into the complexities of the Ukraine war on its three-year anniversary. They discuss how initial predictions of a quick Russian victory have evolved into a drawn-out conflict with significant shifts in U.S. strategy. The conversation touches on the faltering transatlantic alliance, Europe's scrambling to adapt, and the pressing question of who will defend Europe as political landscapes shift dramatically.
The protracted conflict in Ukraine has shifted expectations from a swift Russian victory to a complex war of attrition that remains unpredictable.
The U.S. pivot to back-channel peace talks with Russia has left Europe grappling with a fractured consensus on Ukraine and increased defense challenges.
Deep dives
Understanding the Phases of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
The Russia-Ukraine war has progressed through several distinct phases, contrary to initial expectations of a quick Russian victory. Starting with surprising Ukrainian defenses that repelled Russian advances, the conflict evolved into a prolonged phase of attrition over the past year. A significant recent development has been the shift in the United States' stance, moving from a supportive role for Ukraine to acting as an enforcer for Russia, complicating the situation further. This unexpected turn highlights the challenges faced by Europe in adapting to the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
The Political Dynamics of European Leaders in Response to the U.S.
European leaders are currently navigating a complex political landscape shaped by the unpredictability of U.S. leadership, particularly under Donald Trump. Keir Starmer's upcoming trip to Washington aims to address key issues like Ukraine and defense spending, amidst a backdrop of fluctuating priorities that have shifted focus from tariffs to immediate support for Ukraine. Emmanuel Macron's critical stance toward Trump contrasts with Starmer's more conciliatory approach, creating a delicate balance in their diplomatic efforts. Depending on the outcomes of these discussions, Starmer may find himself in a position to either leverage or mitigate any potential fallout for the UK's relationships.
Challenges of Defense Spending and National Security Planning
The UK faces significant challenges in increasing defense spending amidst a changing geopolitical landscape, with suggestions of innovative budgeting measures being quickly dismissed. The necessity for a comprehensive strategic defense review has become paramount, as current fiscal strategies may not adequately prepare for future security threats. Public support for Ukraine remains high, yet this may be tested as citizens confront the implications for their own finances. Ultimately, the pursuit of growth and security funding is crucial, emphasizing the importance of steadfast strategies rather than temporary financial solutions.
Today marks three years since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. From early fears of a swift Russian victory to the Kharkiv offensive and the slow war of attrition that has played out since, each stage of this war has been hard to predict. None more so than this stage, with the USA drastically changing tack and tearing up the transatlantic alliance by pursuing back-channel peace talks with Putin. Europe has been left scrambling. Where do we go from here? And with an isolationist USA, the breakdown of the European consensus on Ukraine and the UK's armed forces being hollowed out, who is left to defend Europe?
James Heale speaks to Katy Balls and Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House.
Produced by Oscar Edmondson.
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