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Tariffs Distort Economic Data
- Tariffs caused firms to stockpile inventories in anticipation, distorting import and inventory data.
- This behavior complicates understanding the economy's immediate health from early data.
Tariff Effects Will Hit Late Summer
- The real impact of tariffs, such as shortages and price hikes, will likely hit stores by late summer.
- Current inventories delay the visible effect of tariffs on consumer shelves.
Growing Recession Risks from Tariffs
- Consumer surveys are noisy but reflect rising worries about inflation and unemployment.
- Without tariff policy changes, a recession this summer is increasingly likely.