One Rental At A Time 10 Year at 4% What is Next
Oct 15, 2025
Discover insights into the recent drop in the 10-year note and its potential impact on mortgage rates. The host explores the Fed's views on the labor market and hints at upcoming rate cuts. Tune in for a discussion on the possibility of a refi boom as homeowners seek cash-out options. Learn what could bring move-up buyers back into the market and hear updates on mortgage demand trends. Plus, catch a glimpse of global economic concerns from China’s deflation and different inflation expectations across income levels.
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10-Year Yield Near 4% Signals Rate Shift
- The 10-year Treasury yield is hovering near 4% and markets are pricing in upcoming Fed cuts.
- That pricing suggests mortgage rates may continue falling and could drop below 6% if the spread tightens.
Fed Focuses On Jobs, Markets Expect Cuts
- Jerome Powell and other Fed officials are focusing on a weakening labor market.
- The speaker sees October and December quarter-point cuts as likely, with markets already pricing them in.
Don't Reflexively Refinance After Fed Cuts
- Learn from past moves where mortgage rates front‑ran Fed cuts and then rose after Fed commentary.
- Avoid assuming cuts automatically mean immediate lower mortgage rates for refinancing timing.