TIP674: Outperforming the Market, Managing Risk, & Market Inefficiencies w/ Andrew Brenton
Nov 8, 2024
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In this conversation, Andrew Brenton, CEO of Turtle Creek Asset Management, shares wisdom from his 25 years of beating the market. He emphasizes the drawbacks of a buy-and-hold strategy and discusses how US markets are becoming less efficient. Andrew gives insights into allocating investments in AI and software, and reveals Turtle Creek's approach to risk management. He also highlights their recent addition of Kinsale Capital to the portfolio, showcasing how exceptional management plays a pivotal role in navigating market dynamics.
Andrew Brenton critiques the buy-and-hold strategy, advocating for continuous portfolio evaluation to optimize investments based on intrinsic value changes.
The U.S. stock market's growing inefficiency presents opportunities for strategic investors to capitalize on fluctuations and fundamental analysis.
Turtle Creek focuses on investing in innovative companies through technology, thus managing risk and enhancing growth potential across different sectors.
Deep dives
Long-Term Investment Success
Turtle Creek Asset Management, co-founded by Andrew Britton, has demonstrated remarkable investing success since its inception, averaging a 20.3% annual return. Compared to the S&P 500's 8.3% return during the same period, this performance highlights effective investment strategies. An initial investment of $10,000 in Turtle Creek would have grown to over $1.2 million by September 2024, signifying the substantial benefits of their approach compared to just $75,000 if directed to the S&P 500. This significant outperformance over 25 years reflects a deep understanding of market dynamics and an ability to adapt to changing economic conditions.
Critique of Buy and Hold Strategy
Britton critiques the traditional buy-and-hold investment strategy, arguing that it can be flawed when stock prices increase without a corresponding change in a company's intrinsic value. He emphasizes the importance of actively managing positions, suggesting that merely holding stocks can lead to overexposure as their valuations adjust. This perspective encourages an approach that involves continuous evaluation of portfolio holdings, maximizing the allocation to companies perceived as undervalued. Instead of simply retaining stocks, Britton advocates for a 'buy and optimize' strategy that allows for repositioning based on actual business performance and market sentiment.
Market Inefficiencies and Its Impacts
Britton observes that the U.S. stock market is becoming increasingly inefficient over time, driven by factors such as short-termism, social media, and varying trader strategies, including quantitative approaches. These inefficiencies create opportunities for investors who are willing to look beyond market noise and focus on fundamental analysis. He points out that while market fluctuations may seem chaotic, they often provide favorable entry points into solid businesses. By leveraging these inefficiencies, Turtle Creek can enhance its return on investments, particularly during times of market downturns when premium stocks can be acquired at lower prices.
Investing in Innovative Companies
Turtle Creek actively seeks investments in companies harnessing innovative technologies, such as AI and software solutions, to drive growth and enhance efficiency. Britton highlights the competitive advantages these companies can gain by utilizing modern technologies, thus positioning them for significant market share expansion. He provides examples of portfolio companies, like CarMax and ATS Corporation, which have successfully integrated technology to improve business operations and customer interactions. This focus on innovative firms allows Turtle Creek to capitalize on evolving industry trends while managing risk through diversified holdings across different sectors.
Risk Management in Investing
Britton defines risk not in terms of stock price volatility, as commonly perceived in academic theories, but as the potential for permanent capital loss due to flawed forecasts or unforeseen negative events. His strategy emphasizes building a well-researched portfolio of quality companies to mitigate this risk, coupled with an understanding of the underlying business dynamics. By diversifying across multiple industries, Turtle Creek minimizes exposure to company-specific risks while maintaining a clear focus on long-term intrinsic value. This method allows for informed adjustments in the portfolio in response to both market conditions and individual company performances.
On today’s episode, Clay is joined by Andrew Brenton to discuss his biggest investment lessons from beating the market over the past 25 years.
Andrew Brenton is the CEO and co-founder of Turtle Creek Asset Management. Since its inception in 1998, Turtle Creek has achieved an average annual return of 20.3% versus just 8.3% for the S&P 500. $10,000 invested into their fund at inception would have grown to over $1.2 million as of September 30th, 2024, and had that money been invested in the market, it would have been worth around $75,000.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00 - Intro
01:39 - The fundamental drawbacks of a buy-and-hold investment strategy.
10:58 - Why the stock market in the US is becoming less efficient over time.
28:48 - How Andrew thinks about allocating to AI and software businesses in his portfolio.
38:51 - How Turtle Creek manages risk investing in stocks.
52:55 - Why Turtle Creek added Kinsale Capital to their portfolio this year.
01:00:02 - What keeps Andrew going after 30 years in the industry.
And so much more!
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
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