Shaun Newman Podcast #979 - Luke Gromen
10 snips
Jan 7, 2026 
Luke Gromen, a macroeconomic analyst with over 30 years of experience, explores the potential risks heading into 2026, including rising Japanese yields and AI disruptions. He discusses how Bitcoin may signal market liquidity stress and the implications of Japanese asset repatriation. Gromen highlights the deflationary effects of AI on employment and connects geopolitical tensions to waning global confidence. He advocates for a diversified investment strategy and emphasizes the safety of physical bullion amid economic uncertainty.
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Bottoms-Up Research Background
- Luke recounts building bottoms-up research at Midwest Research and Cleveland Research to avoid management spin.
- He explains that talking to suppliers and competitors revealed trends early and helped position clients ahead of 2008.
Converging Global Stressors In 2026
- Multiple global stresses (Japanese yields, AI, geopolitics, deficits, reshoring failures, resource constraints) are converging into a systemic risk for 2026.
- Luke Gromen sees these as “swimmers washing up on the beach” that could interact unpredictably and amplify each other.
AI’s First Effect Is Job Displacement
- AI advances create exponential productivity that first displaces jobs before delivering net benefits.
- Gromen expects early unemployment shocks, especially among recent graduates, to act as leading indicators.
