Sketchplanations - The Podcast Microlives & The Art of Uncertainty with Sir David Spiegelhalter
Dec 2, 2025
Sir David Spiegelhalter, Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge and author of The Art of Uncertainty, dives into the fascinating concepts of micromorts and microlives, quantifying risks associated with daily choices like smoking or skydiving. He shares insights on the importance of randomized trials in medicine and the human struggle with uncertainty. David also discusses how acknowledging uncertainty can build public trust, and explores the intersection of stats and everyday life, all spiced with engaging anecdotes and practical tips.
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Training With Data For Wipeout
- Sir David Spiegelhalter trained for the TV show Wipeout by analysing qualifier times and practising three-minute bursts.
- He used regression analysis of historical times to set a realistic target and avoid embarrassing long runs.
Micromorts Make Acute Risk Comparable
- A micromort equals a one-in-a-million chance of sudden death and helps compare acute risks across activities.
- Many voluntary activities cluster around 5–10 micromorts, a level people commonly accept for fun or exercise.
Microlives Quantify Lifestyle Trade-Offs
- A microlife is defined as half an hour of life expectancy lost on average from a habitual behaviour.
- Small daily habits like two cigarettes or two hours of TV accumulate and can be added to compare lifestyle trade-offs.
