Secrets and Spies Podcast: Espionage | Global Issues | Current Affairs

S10 Ep28: Global Security in 2026: Conflict, Cyber, and the End of Unipolarity with Sam Lichtenstein

Jan 24, 2026

Sam Lichtenstein, a RANE risk intelligence analyst who leads geopolitical and security forecasting, outlines 2026’s major risks. He covers rising violent conflicts across Africa and the Middle East. He discusses Taiwan coercion short of war, Russian asymmetric threats in Europe, and growing cyber and AI-enabled attack vectors. He also examines US domestic political violence and the shift away from a unipolar world.

Ask episode

AI Snips

Chapters

Transcript

Episode notes

ADVICE

Use Nested Time Horizons For Forecasts

Build forecasts using nested timelines: daily, quarterly, annual, and decade frameworks to link tactics to strategy.
Sam Lichtenstein advises analysts to connect short-term events to long-term trends for clearer risk guidance.

INSIGHT

Human Behavior Limits Forecasting

Human behavior is the hardest variable to predict in geopolitics because whims and opaque decisions disrupt strategic forecasts.
Sam Lichtenstein stresses analytic frameworks help but cannot fully account for individual unpredictability.

INSIGHT

A Year Of High-Tempo Conflicts

2026 will feature unusually high tempo of violent conflicts and many unresolved, lingering wars.
Sam Lichtenstein warns unfinished conflicts raise risk of new escalations and regional spillovers.

Get the Snipd Podcast app to discover more snips from this episode

Get the app

In this comprehensive discussion, Sam Lichtenstein from RANE (Risk Assistance Network & Exchange) joins Chris to dissect their annual geopolitical and security forecast. Sam provides insights into the geopolitical landscape for 2026, highlighting the challenges of predicting human behavior, the rise of violent conflicts, and the implications of AI and cybersecurity threats. They cover regional dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the Americas, emphasizing the interconnectedness of these issues and the potential for political violence in the US. Sam also discusses the breakdown of the unipolar order and its impact on global security.

Subscribe and share to stay ahead in the world of intelligence, global issues, and current affairs.

Read RANE’s 2026 Annual Forecast: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/2026-annual-forecast

Support Secrets and Spies

Become a “Friend of the Podcast” on Patreon for £3/$4: https://www.patreon.com/SecretsAndSpies
Buy merchandise from our shop: https://www.redbubble.com/shop/ap/60934996
Buy us a coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/secretsandspies
Subscribe to our YouTube page: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCDVB23lrHr3KFeXq4VU36dg
For more information about the podcast, check out our website: https://secretsandspiespodcast.com

Connect with us on social media

Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/secretsandspies.bsky.social
Instagram: https://instagram.com/secretsandspies
Facebook: https://facebook.com/secretsandspies
Spoutible: https://spoutible.com/SecretsAndSpies

Follow Chris and Matt on Bluesky:
https://bsky.app/profile/chriscarrfilm.bsky.social
https://bsky.app/profile/mattfulton.net

Secrets and Spies is produced by F & P LTD.
Music by Andrew R. Bird
Photo by Harun Ozalp/Getty

Secrets and Spies sits at the intersection of intelligence, covert action, real-world espionage, and broader geopolitics in a way that is digestible but serious. Hosted by filmmaker Chris Carr and writer Matt Fulton, each episode examines the very topics that real intelligence officers and analysts consider on a daily basis through the lens of global events and geopolitics, featuring expert insights from former spies, authors, and journalists.