POLITICO Energy The new IEA report predicts a gas glut
Nov 13, 2025
In this discussion, James Bikales, a POLITICO reporter and oil and gas expert, dives into the IEA's newly released 2025 World Energy Outlook. He highlights the return of the Current Policy Scenario, addressing previous GOP criticisms. Bikales warns of a looming natural gas glut, driven by a surge in supply and sluggish renewable adoption. He also sheds light on Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro's controversial move to withdraw from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, sparking further debate on climate policies.
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IEA Restores Current Policy Scenario
- The IEA restored its Current Policy Scenario, analyzing futures based only on enacted laws and measures.
- That change responds to GOP complaints that the prior stated policies scenario painted an overly optimistic renewables outlook.
IEA Sees Rising Fossil Fuel Demand
- Both the Current Policy and Stated Policy scenarios now project higher fossil fuel use than last year.
- The IEA expects an unprecedented surge in natural gas supply by 2030, largely from the U.S.
U.S. Renewable Slowdown Raises Fossil Use
- The Stated Policies scenario also shows more fossil fuel demand partly because U.S. renewable rollout has slowed.
- That slowdown means the U.S. could have about 30% less renewables capacity by 2035 than previously forecast.