The Outlook for Markets, Rates, and a Second Trump Term
Dec 18, 2024
auto_awesome
Alicia Levine, Head of Investment Strategy and Equities at BNY Wealth, shares her insights on the 2025 market outlook and the risks influenced by the Federal Reserve. Jason Furman, an economics professor at Harvard, discusses the potential inflationary impact of President Trump’s second term policies. Meanwhile, Jason Trennert, Chief Investment Strategist at Strategas, explores major market trends, the future of interest rates, and the implications of inflation strategies for investors. A lively discussion on navigating economic uncertainties provides valuable perspectives!
The 2025 financial outlook suggests modest growth of about 10%, emphasizing the need for solid earnings performance over multiple expansions.
Potential inflationary pressures may arise from new U.S. economic policies, particularly regarding immigration dynamics and their impact on the labor market.
Deep dives
Investing in AI and Robotics
The GlobalX Robotics and Artificial Intelligence ETF (ticker BOTZ) focuses on investing in companies that drive innovation through robotics and artificial intelligence across various sectors, including industrials and healthcare. This ETF aims to capitalize on the growing influence of these technologies by selecting firms poised for significant disruption. Prospective investors should be aware that while the fund offers an opportunity to engage in technological advancement, it carries inherent risks, including potential principal loss. Additionally, technology sectors are susceptible to rapid obsolescence and intense competition which could influence overall returns.
Market Expectations and Growth Predictions
Looking ahead to the 2025 financial outlook, analysts suggest a modest growth expectation of around 10%, attributing this to the typical patterns observed in the third year following a bear market. Historical trends indicate that significant gains are often not replicated in this phase, as earnings need to outpace their multiples for substantial growth. Currently, with forward earnings at 22 times, the focus shifts to the necessity for solid earnings growth in place of prior multiple expansions. Anticipating higher earnings performance is crucial considering that last year's growth was partially driven by a multiply increase rather than organic earnings production.
Volatility and Market Health
Despite a relatively stable year with minimal market pullbacks observed, expectations for increased volatility in the following year are growing among market analysts. A healthy bull market typically undergoes regular corrections, and the lack of notable drawdowns raises concerns about market sustainability. The potential for volatility might be heightened due to changes in monetary policy as well as various economic adjustments prompted by the new administration. The anticipated end-of-year projection stands at 6,600 for the S&P 500, although caution is advised as economic conditions evolve.
The Impact of Government Policy on Inflation
The conversation around U.S. economic policies suggests that inflation could be influenced by various evolving governmental strategies, particularly regarding immigration and tariffs. Research indicates that potential mass deportations might exert a more significant inflationary pressure compared to tariff implementations, stressing the importance of labor market dynamics in this context. The implications of these policies on inflation not only align with historical precedents but also highlight the delicate balance between growth and economic stability. With inflationary risks persisting, attentiveness to governmental actions and their market consequences remains vital for both investors and economists.
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF. Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyDecember 18th, 2024 Featuring:
Alicia Levine, Head of Investment Strategy and Equities at BNY Wealth, discusses her 2025 outlook, the Fed, and volatility and risks in 2025
Jason Furman, Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at Harvard University, discusses President-elect Trump's second term economic policies and whether or not he believes they will be inflationary
Jason Trennert, Chief Investment Strategist at Strategas, talks about the big picture in markets, what's next for the Fed and inflation, and the path for rates