The Rundown Why Nvidia’s Grip on China Won’t Last Forever | Gil Luria
18 snips
Aug 31, 2025 
Gil Luria, Head of Technology Research at D.A. Davidson, shares his insights on Nvidia's challenges in the Chinese market, highlighting the rising competition from Huawei. He discusses the surge in AI CapEx spending and questions its sustainability amidst potential market volatility. Luria dives into the implications of escalating U.S.-China tensions and the impact on tech firms. Furthermore, he examines the $600 billion investments in AI, debating their legitimacy and the likelihood of long-term gains versus short-term challenges.
AI Snips
Chapters
Transcript
Episode notes
NVIDIA Is The Go-To AI Compute Supplier
- NVIDIA remains dominant because AI models need massive compute and current datacenter providers rely heavily on NVIDIA GPUs.
- As long as NVIDIA is the main supplier, demand and growth for their chips will persist.
China Reporting Masks Real Demand
- China is noisy and opaque in NVIDIA's reporting because invoice geography masks true chip destinations.
- US-China export controls and Chinese reseller flows create significant short-term uncertainty for NVIDIA's China revenue.
China Could Shrink As A Share Over Time
- NVIDIA may follow Apple's trajectory where China share shrinks from ~20% toward ~10% over time.
- The short-term guidance hit likely reflects restricted sales into China this quarter.