Chain Reaction

The War’s Impact On Russia's Regional Power Dynamics

May 8, 2025
András Tóth-Czifra, a Fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, discusses the complexities of Russia's regional power dynamics amid the ongoing war. He highlights the Kremlin's tightening grip on regional politics and the resulting pushback from local elites. The conversation delves into how centralization has altered leadership structures and economic conditions across regions, creating both winners and losers. Tóth-Czifra raises concerns about the sustainability of this strategy and the potential for heightened tensions within the Russian government.
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INSIGHT

War Heightens Regional Political Tensions

  • The war exposed tensions in Russia's regional governance as local elites resist Kremlin control.
  • These tensions highlight the war's impact beyond the frontline, affecting internal politics and governance stability.
INSIGHT

Centralized Control Through Appointed Governors

  • The Kremlin appoints 'federalized locals' or security-backbone governors to tighten control over regions.
  • Local elites increasingly lose autonomy, facing conflicts with Moscow-backed officials.
INSIGHT

War Accelerated Power Centralization

  • The war accelerated a preexisting Kremlin drive to centralize political and fiscal power.
  • Increased insecurity and opportunity to tighten control intensified these centralization efforts.
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