A new (and bolder) approach to Iran? – with Mark Dubowitz
Aug 19, 2024
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Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, shares insights from his time in Israel on the bold new strategies towards Iran. He discusses alarming advancements in Iran's nuclear capabilities and its implications for regional security. The conversation delves into Iran's use of proxy organizations to threaten Israel, and critiques the country’s reactive defense strategies, advocating for a more proactive approach. Moreover, Dubowitz examines the complications surrounding the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA and the need for enhanced military tactics against Iranian aggression.
Iran's nuclear advancements raise significant security concerns for both the U.S. and Israel, necessitating a reevaluation of their response strategies.
Israel is potentially shifting from reactive measures towards a more proactive approach aimed at undermining the Iranian regime and supporting opposition movements.
Deep dives
Iran's Nuclear Threat Escalates
Recent U.S. intelligence reports indicate a significant shift in the assessment of Iran's nuclear capabilities, marking a departure from previous conclusions that suggested Iran was not pursuing nuclear weapons. The latest findings reveal that Iran is engaging in activities that could enable the development and production of a testable nuclear device at their discretion. These advancements include accumulating large stockpiles of enriched uranium, which have increased from a low civilian-grade enrichment level to potentially weapons-grade levels. The implications are profound, raising urgent questions about the responses of both the U.S. and Israel in light of Iran's growing nuclear ambitions.
The Ring of Fire Strategy
Iran’s strategy, often referred to as the 'Ring of Fire,' involves orchestrating proxy militias throughout the Middle East to exert pressure on Israel. This network includes groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and various other armed factions that threaten regional stability. Moreover, Iran utilizes these proxies to create diversions while simultaneously advancing its nuclear program, effectively turning the region into a battleground against its enemies. This tactical approach enables Iran to maintain aggression without direct confrontation, complicating any military responses from Israel and creating a pervasive threat landscape.
Reassessing Israel's Approach to Iran
Israel's long-standing strategy against Iran has predominantly focused on tactical responses to immediate threats rather than formulating a cohesive long-term strategy. This has often left the country at a disadvantage, as it reacts to Iran’s proxy threats without addressing the broader existential menace posed by Iran’s regime. Recent discussions among Israeli security officials indicate a potential shift towards a strategy that not only mitigates immediate threats but also aims at undermining the Iranian regime itself. This rethinking could allow Israel to adopt a more offensive posture, actively working to weaken and possibly overturn the Islamic Republic's influence.
Supporting the Iranian Opposition
There is a growing recognition of the importance of supporting the Iranian people and opposition movements as a means to counter the Islamic Republic. Suggestions include providing technological tools to facilitate communications during protests, establishing labor strike funds, and even contemplating the means to defend against regime repression. Practical steps could be mobilized through increasing international awareness and support for ongoing protests within Iran. Engaging the Iranian populace directly may help to weaken the regime’s stranglehold and pave the way for a more moderate government that prioritizes peace and stability in the region.
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Mark Dubowitz reports from Tel Aviv after over a month in Israel discussing Israel’s emerging (and bolder) approach to Iran.
Mark is the CEO of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies (FDD). In his role, he has advised the Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden administrations and lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, and he has testified more than twenty times before the U.S. Congress and foreign legislatures.
A former venture capitalist and technology executive, Mark holds a master’s degree in international public policy from Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies.
To read Mark’s recent piece in the Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/opinion/israels-approach-to-iran-may-be-getting-bolder-f4c2c5f2?st=26ve823zvaeilzf&reflink=article_copyURL_share
FDD’s Iranian Protest Tracker Map: https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2023/01/27/mapping-the-protests-in-iran-2/
Register for Call me Back Live at the Streicker Center in New York: https://streicker.nyc/events/tibon-senor
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