A Call for a New NSC-68 and Goldwater Nichols Reform | Policy Paper
Jan 21, 2025
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T. Michael Mosley, the 18th Chief of Staff of the United States Air Force, Richard Andres, a Professor at the National War College, and Larry Stutzrehm, Director of Research at the Mitchell Institute, delve into urgent national security reforms. They discuss the outdated Goldwater-Nichols Act and its impact on military readiness. The conversation highlights the growing threats from China and Russia, emphasizes the need for a new strategic framework akin to NSC-68, and urges for a revamped funding strategy to modernize the U.S. Air Force and Navy.
The U.S. military's declining deterrence capabilities are threatening the rules-based international order due to adversarial advancements by nations like China and Russia.
The Goldwater-Nichols Reform Act has inadvertently fragmented military planning, hindering long-term strategic capabilities essential for addressing evolving threats.
The Department of Defense's bureaucratic dysfunctions necessitate a national security reassessment and restructuring to align military commitments with realistic capabilities.
Deep dives
U.S. Military at an Inflection Point
The U.S. is facing critical challenges as its deterrence capabilities are diminishing, primarily due to military modernization efforts by adversaries like China and Russia, alongside the terrorism threatened by Iran. This decline is exacerbated by financial constraints on defense spending, issues related to organizational structure, and a lack of coherent foreign policy, all of which are undermining national security. There is an urgent need for a new strategic vision akin to NSC-68 from 1950 to revitalize U.S. military strength and align capabilities with commitments. The current geopolitical environment necessitates comprehensive reforms to enhance the military's credibility and deter aggression effectively.
Repercussions of Goldwater-Nichols
The original Goldwater-Nichols Act aimed to enhance joint operations by addressing inter-service competition; however, its execution has led to significant unintended consequences. Removing service chiefs from the chain of command created a critical gap in long-term defense planning, as individual services became disconnected from strategic decision-making. Consequently, with combatant commanders focused solely on immediate operational needs, the broader military capability needed to deter great power conflicts has been compromised. This fragmentation has hindered the Department of Defense’s ability to effectively innovate and adapt to the evolving threats posed by peer adversaries.
Systemic Dysfunction in Defense Operations
The Department of Defense suffers from three primary dysfunctions stemming from its bureaucratic structure, with systemic paralysis being the most insidious. Over-centralization dilutes competition, leading to a slow and risk-averse procurement process that now takes decades to develop new weapon systems, in contrast to the previously effective three-year timeline. This prioritization of process over innovation leaves the military poorly equipped, with adversaries like China advancing faster in technological capabilities. Additionally, a focus on immediate operational successes undermines long-term strategic planning, jeopardizing the military's overall readiness for potential future conflicts.
Critical Recommendations for Reform
To address the identified issues, four key recommendations are put forth, starting with a comprehensive national security reassessment reflective of NSC-68 principles. This review must ensure that military commitments align with the current capabilities of the U.S. Armed Forces. Secondly, restructuring the Department of Defense is essential to improve decision-making processes, which should prioritize long-term strategic needs alongside immediate operational demands. Furthermore, augmenting the defense budget is crucial, as realigning expenditures toward cost-effective warfighting capabilities will enhance deterrence and prepare for future conflicts against formidable adversaries.
Urgency of Action Against Global Threats
The perception of external threats has shifted significantly, with adversaries recognizing U.S. military vulnerabilities and acting aggressively against U.S. interests globally. If deterrence commitments continue to exceed military capabilities, this could lead to a collapse of credibility, resulting in increased global instability. Two possible outcomes are foreseen: either the U.S. backs down from adversarial confrontations, leading to a disintegration of the rules-based international order, or escalates tensions resulting in a potential great power conflict, particularly with China. Therefore, decisive action must be taken urgently to rebuild deterrence capabilities, or the consequences could be gravely detrimental to national security.
Hostile actions by Russia, Iran, and China clearly show that the United States is struggling when it comes to shaping the national security environment and deterring adversaries. The U.S. military no longer has the capability and capacity to defend the rules-based international order that has long been the cornerstone of its foreign policy. Absent a reset, this failure of deterrence could very well lead to a war between the United States and China.
Deficiencies of the 1986 Goldwater-Nichols Reform Act severely restrict the ability on the services to prioritize long-term strategic threats in favor of the immediate, non-combat demands of the combatant commands and civilian defense bureaucracy. Too often, long-term defense procurement strategies and requirements are neglected given these dynamics. The resulting failure of U.S. forces to prudently modernize and recapitalize have emboldened America’s adversaries to use violence to pursue their expansionist goals, setting the United States on a path toward a great power war. To prevent this and retain the current rules-based world order, it is time for a new vector.
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