Here's Why Here's Why Taiwan's Future Might Be Tied to Ukraine
Dec 5, 2025
Karishma Vaswani, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist and journalist specializing in geopolitics, dives deep into the Taiwan-China dynamic. She discusses how China is strategically observing the Ukraine conflict, particularly the Trump administration's peace plan, to shape its own approach towards Taiwan. Vaswani highlights the current tensions in Beijing-Taipei relations and outlines tactics China uses, like military coercion. She also covers Taiwan's proactive defense strategies and how shifting U.S. policies might influence China's calculations.
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Diverging National Narratives
- China views Taiwan as its own territory and plans unification "by peaceful means or by force" if necessary.
- Taiwan increasingly defines a distinct identity and views itself as a self-governed democracy.
Gray Zone Coercion Intensifies
- Beijing has ramped up military, diplomatic and cyber pressure to shape Taiwan's environment without invading.
- These 'gray zone' tactics aim to erode Taiwanese security and make the island feel more vulnerable over time.
Ukraine Peace Plan As A Template
- Xi Jinping is watching any US‑Russia/Ukraine peace plans for templates and possible concessions to Russia.
- Beijing sees those outcomes as potential windows to press its own Taiwan objectives with a receptive US administration.