Taiwan expert Bonnie Glaser discusses the upcoming presidential election in Taiwan, including the candidates and polling trends. They also explore the impact of US tax regulatory issues on Taiwan and the implications of the election on cross-strait relations. The chapter concludes with a discussion on deterrence strategies to protect Taiwan from China and encourages listener engagement.
The upcoming Taiwan presidential election focuses on the candidates' political philosophies, polling trends, and impact on cross-strait relations.
Economic concerns and cross-strait relations dominate the campaign, with different strategies offered by the ruling party and the nationalist party regarding economic ties with China.
Deep dives
Overview of the Taiwan Presidential Election
This podcast episode discusses the upcoming Taiwan presidential election and the profiles of the three candidates. The first candidate is Lychengdae, the vice president of Taiwan and the ruling party, with a background in politics and a medical degree. The second candidate is Ho-Yo-e, the mayor of New Taipei, running for the nationalist party, with a police background and a focus on policy change. The third candidate is Koenjia, representing the Taiwan People's Party, appealing to voters disillusioned by traditional parties. The episode explores their political philosophies, polling trends, and the impact of the election on cross-strait relations.
Key Issues in the Taiwan Presidential Election
The podcast highlights the main issues dominating the campaign, with a focus on the economy and cross-strait relations. Economic concerns such as stagnant wages, job opportunities, and high housing costs are significant for the electorate, often intertwined with the question of relations with China. Both the ruling party (DPP) and the nationalist party (KMT) offer different strategies regarding economic ties with China, with the former aiming to reduce reliance on China and the latter advocating for closer economic integration. The episode discusses the demographic differences in views on cross-strait relations, noting a shift towards identifying as Taiwanese rather than solely Chinese, particularly among the younger generation.
Implications of Beijing's Interference in the Election
The podcast delves into Beijing's interference in Taiwan's elections, both overt and covert. China has attempted to shape the outcome by courting religious groups and local politicians, as well as influencing Taiwanese businessmen through incentives and financial support. Disinformation campaigns, manipulation of public opinion, and economic coercion have also been used to create divisions within Taiwan's society and promote pro-Beijing narratives. While these efforts may not significantly impact voters with established preferences, they could sway swing voters in a closely contested race. Taiwan's government remains vigilant in combating Chinese interference, and the episode discusses potential military and economic pressure from Beijing following the election.
The Longer-Term Outlook for Cross-Strait Relations
The episode explores Beijing's approach to unification and the potential strategies employed by Xi Jinping. It highlights Xi's preference for a non-military solution to achieve reunification, potentially through building a formidable military force and eroding confidence in Taiwan's government. The podcast emphasizes the importance of deterrence from the United States to prevent any use of force against Taiwan. Deterrence is seen as a combination of credible threats, such as military capabilities and support for Taiwan's defense, and credible assurances to both Taiwan and China that independence will not be supported. The episode concludes with the need for continued attention and engagement with the Taiwan-China relationship.
Michael talks with Taiwan expert Bonnie Glaser, who is managing director of the German Marshall Fund's Indo-Pacific Program, ahead of Taiwan's elections January 13.
Also, Michael and Andy want to hear from you. Send us your feedback at intelligencematterspod@gmail.com. We'll also read some of your reviews of the podcast from Apple onair.
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