Ken McElroy Show

Everyone Predicted a Housing Crash, Here’s Why It Didn’t Happen

Dec 30, 2025
Discover why the anticipated housing crash never came to fruition. Learn about the structural supply shortage dating back to 2008 and how locked-in low-rate mortgages keep homeowners in place. Explore the strong balance sheets of current homeowners and the current stringent lending practices preventing a market meltdown. Find out why waiting for a price drop could price you out of opportunities. Plus, insights on the Canadian market and the ongoing rent-versus-buy affordability gap add depth to the discussion.
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INSIGHT

No Crash Without Forced Selling

  • Housing didn't crash because sellers were not forced to sell and delinquencies/foreclosures remained low.
  • The market stalled rather than collapsed due to structural supply shortages dating back to 2008.
INSIGHT

Supply Shortage Started After 2008

  • A long-term supply shortage began after 2008 as building and lending pulled back and never fully recovered.
  • That constrained supply is a key reason prices stayed elevated despite higher rates.
INSIGHT

Rates Lower Values, Not Operations

  • Apartments remained operationally healthy with high occupancy even as values fell because rates drove cap rates.
  • Rate-driven value declines differ from operational distress in multifamily markets.
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