CoinDesk Podcast Network Why 2026 Could Bring a Bear Market | Markets Outlook
Dec 1, 2025
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research and a leading crypto market analyst, shares his insights on a potential bear market looming in 2026. He discusses the historical impact of midterm elections on U.S. stocks and the signs of 'institutional fatigue' highlighted by recent ETF outflows. Thielen delves into the changing behaviors of crypto whales and contrasts Bitcoin's liquidity appeal with gold's traditional value. With predictions of a possible 60% correction, he emphasizes the need for fresh narratives to rejuvenate the market.
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Compressed Volatility Hid Market Fragility
- Market volatility was compressed by ETF and corporate treasury buying, reducing retail-driven moves.
- This compression later made the market vulnerable when institutional flows reversed.
OG Distribution Created A New Market Equilibrium
- Mega OG wallets distributed coins into newer whale wallets over the year, creating a new equilibrium.
- Thielen argues that volatility got crushed as ETF and corporate treasuries bought but that changed after October.
Fed Hawkishness Triggered ETF Outflows
- The market shifted after Fed Chair Powell turned unexpectedly hawkish in October.
- Thielen notes ETF buyers flipped to sellers, driving $4 billion of outflows in 14 trading days.