The Debt Crisis Also Presents Great Opportunity For Investors | Gordon Long
Sep 12, 2024
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Gordon Long, a financial markets expert and commentator, dives into the alarming $35.34 trillion US federal debt crisis. He discusses the looming threat of a sovereign debt crisis while uncovering potential investment opportunities within this turmoil. The conversation explores 'creditism' and its prevalence in today's economy, strategies to navigate market risks, and the impacts of inflation on purchasing power. Long also highlights the evolving influence of BRICS nations on global commodities, urging investors to stay informed and adaptable.
The US federal debt now exceeds $35 trillion, raising concerns of a potential sovereign debt crisis amidst economic sustainability issues.
A shift towards 'creditism' signifies that economic growth increasingly relies on debt accumulation rather than productivity or savings.
Despite economic volatility and inflation, savvy investors can find opportunities focusing on tangible assets like commodities and real estate.
Deep dives
Assessment of the Global Economy
The current state of the global economy is characterized by significant alarm signals, with increasing concerns over rising debt levels and economic sustainability. As the US Federal debt has surpassed $35 trillion, analysts warn of a potential sovereign debt crisis, raising questions about the ability to manage this debt trajectory effectively. Despite these negative indicators, there is a perspective that this may be an optimal time for investing, provided that investors can adequately manage associated risks. The complexities faced by central banks and the government complicate the economic landscape, as options for addressing these challenges appear to be dwindling.
The Trap of Government Solutions
Historically, governments tend to avoid fixing underlying issues, often opting to buy time by 'kicking the can down the road' instead of implementing sustainable solutions. This tendency results in increased market fragility and corresponding risks, as governments frequently change rules without public transparency. The expectation is that, rather than implementing lasting reforms, the government will continue to utilize emergency measures in response to immediate crises, which typically exacerbate long-term issues. As the system becomes more complex, the ability of governments to manage economic crises effectively diminishes, leaving investors to anticipate government action rather than rely on them for robust problem-solving.
Understanding Creditism
A shift has occurred from traditional capitalism to a concept known as 'creditism,' where economic growth is increasingly driven by debt accumulation rather than savings and productive investments. This transformation influences GDP measurements, as economic indicators now include vast amounts of credit, leading to distorted perceived growth rates. The reliance on credit to stimulate economic activity raises concerns about sustainability, as increasing debt does not necessarily correlate with productive output. Such conditions may lead to a future where more debt is required to achieve even marginal GDP growth, highlighting the fragile nature of the current economic system.
Future Inflation and Economic Volatility
The podcast suggests that the era of economic stability known as the Great Moderation is giving way to an environment of heightened volatility, inflation, and risk. As the economy transitions from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the expectation is that inflation rates will rise, driven by various structural factors, including labor shortages and tariffs. Additionally, demographic challenges both in the U.S. and globally, coupled with rising interest rates, could further complicate recovery efforts and lead to higher living costs. Investors must prepare for this turbulent landscape, as the potential for drastic economic shifts looms.
Investment Opportunities amidst Risk
Despite the myriad of challenges and risks present in the current financial environment, there are unique opportunities for savvy investors able to navigate these turbulent waters. Investment strategies focused on tangible assets, such as commodities and real estate, may provide a buffer against the impacts of inflation and currency devaluation. The advice is to approach investments carefully, leveraging knowledge and tools such as hedging strategies to mitigate downside risks while positioning for potential market gains. As governments may continue to print money to manage debt, complacency is discouraged, with a recommendation for thorough research and analysis before making investment decisions.
Total US federal debt now stands at $35.34 Trillion, now exceeding US annual GDP by $10 trillion.
It has been growing at a faster rate than GDP for many decades. That dynamic shows no signs of reversing or even moderating.
And on top of the federal debt lies the borrowing of households, businesses, financial institutions and state & local governments. When you add all that up, the total US debt exceeds $100 trillion.
So what does that mean for the future?
Are we hurdling towards a sovereign debt crisis, as a number of analysts warn? Or is there reason to hope the economy can handle this debt trajectory?
For guidance, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program market analyst Gordon Long of MATASII: Macro Analytics & Technical Analysis Strategic Investment Insight
Follow Gordon at https://matasii.com
LOCK IN THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT for the Thoughtful Money Fall Online Conference by registering now at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference
#debtcrisis #inflation #investing
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