Natasha Kaneva, Tracey Allen, and Gregory Shearer discuss the recent pullback in commodities and predict a 10% appreciation in the BCOM index. They touch on factors like weather-related volatility, pests, European elections, China's Third Plenum, and the Fed's rate cutting cycle. The podcast explores fluctuations in commodity prices, impact of production losses in the Black Sea region, resurgence of oil in the market, gasoline demand in the US, and outlook on gold, silver, copper, and natural gas prices.
Commodities expected to appreciate by 10% due to supportive fundamentals and external factors
Sugar and wheat preferred for investment due to tight inventory and favorable weather conditions
Gold and silver forecasted to have upside potential with price targets set for 2025
Deep dives
Outlook on Commodities Performance
Commodity prices surged to all-time highs for copper, gold, cocoa, and frozen orange juice, followed by a pullback in June due to profit-taking and concerns about a slowdown in the US economy. Despite the retracement in commodity prices, a strong US payroll report indicated a cooling rather than collapsing economy, reflecting a 'goldilocks' scenario with moderate US growth. The recent pullback in commodities is viewed as temporary, especially in markets like copper, gold, and silver.
Agricultural Commodities - Tight Inventory and Demand
Sugar and wheat are highlighted as preferred longs due to tight inventory bases, firm demand, and weather-related supply challenges. The agricultural commodities market faces notable constraints in Brazil due to dry conditions affecting cane availability. The market also anticipates potential positive impacts from a shift to La Nina patterns, particularly in the sugar market, signaling favorable conditions for investment.
Oil Market Dynamics and Speculative Outlook
Oil prices are expected to tighten, with inventory draws likely leading to an increase towards the high 80s and 90s range by September. Demand for oil is projected to rise further, driven by summer travel and refinery runs. Ongoing production cuts by OPEC and allies are seen as factors that could support a bullish trend in the oil market, despite concerns about a potentially weak second half of next year.
Gold and Silver Predictions for Future Growth
Gold and silver are anticipated to experience upside potential through the end of the year, with price forecast targets set around $2,600 per ounce for gold and $34 per ounce for silver by 2025. The bullish outlook is reinforced by expectations of a cutting cycle starting in November, prompting a shift towards ETF inflows and a structural driver of higher prices. Central bank purchases and anticipated quarterly cuts contribute to the positive forecast for precious metals.
Copper Market Update and Forecast
Copper prices are in a consolidation phase, with expectations of inventory digestion and potential demand recovery in China due to upcoming infrastructure stimuli. Despite the short-term consolidation period, the long-term outlook for copper remains positive, with a forecasted increase towards $10,400 per ton by year-end and a peak of $11.5 in 2025. Structural supply issues and market consolidation are key factors driving the predicted trend in copper prices.
Natural Gas Performance and Analysis
US natural gas, previously top-ranked, has shifted to the bottom of the list due to increased supply impacting market dynamics. The market remains fundamentally bullish, with considerations of new LNG feed gas demand and natural gas power generation driving future price movements. Expectations of a gradual market reentry and a target level around $4 per MBTU by September underscore the cautious optimism surrounding natural gas's future performance.
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research
We believe the recent pullback in commodities is just that—a pullback—and we continue to see a 10% appreciation in the broader BCOM Commodities index by year-end. Underpinning our constructive BCOM and sectorial recommendations is the expectation that in addition to supportive fundamentals over the next two and a half months commodities would be likely exposed to a confluence of forces, among them weather-related volatility and pests, but also European Parliamentary elections, China’s Third Plenum and the onset of the Fed’s rate cutting cycle.