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FiveThirtyEight Politics

Do The Betting Markets Have 2024 Right?

Jan 4, 2024
53:45
Snipd AI
The podcast discusses the betting markets and predictions for the 2024 election, including Nikki Haley's chances in New Hampshire. They also analyze Joe Biden's probability of becoming the Democratic nominee and the potential impact of a woman running mate for the Republican nominee. The hosts explore how the conflicts in Israel-Hamas and Ukraine could influence the election and how foreign policy affects vote choice. They also discuss immigration laws and the uncertainty of Trump's trials on the 2024 election.
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Quick takeaways

  • The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is a major wildcard for the 2024 election, potentially shaping the political landscape and impacting public opinion.
  • The state of the economy and voters' perception of it will play a significant role in the election, with an improving economy benefiting Biden's re-election chances and a recession or negative shocks posing a significant risk.

Deep dives

The uncertainty of the Israel-Gaza conflict and its implications

The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is a major wildcard for the 2024 election. The outcome and duration of the conflict, as well as its impact on public opinion, could potentially shape the political landscape leading up to November.

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