The podcast discusses the betting markets and predictions for the 2024 election, including Nikki Haley's chances in New Hampshire. They also analyze Joe Biden's probability of becoming the Democratic nominee and the potential impact of a woman running mate for the Republican nominee. The hosts explore how the conflicts in Israel-Hamas and Ukraine could influence the election and how foreign policy affects vote choice. They also discuss immigration laws and the uncertainty of Trump's trials on the 2024 election.
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Quick takeaways
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is a major wildcard for the 2024 election, potentially shaping the political landscape and impacting public opinion.
The state of the economy and voters' perception of it will play a significant role in the election, with an improving economy benefiting Biden's re-election chances and a recession or negative shocks posing a significant risk.
Deep dives
The uncertainty of the Israel-Gaza conflict and its implications
The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is a major wildcard for the 2024 election. The outcome and duration of the conflict, as well as its impact on public opinion, could potentially shape the political landscape leading up to November.
The role of foreign policy in the election
Events in the Middle East and Ukraine, such as the Israel-Hamas conflict and the conflict in Ukraine, could impact voter sentiment depending on how they unfold. These conflicts have the potential to polarize and unite Democrats and Republicans, which could have implications for the election outcome.
The economy as a determining factor
The state of the economy and voters' perception of it will play a significant role in the election. If the economy improves, it could benefit Biden's approval ratings and chances of re-election. Conversely, a recession or negative economic shocks could significantly harm Biden's chances.
Wildcard issues: Abortion, immigration, and Trump's legal trials
The ongoing debates around abortion, immigration, and Trump's legal trials could shape the election. The ways in which these issues are addressed and perceived by voters, including their potential impact on political polarization, will be key factors to monitor throughout the campaign.
The 538 Politics podcast is kicking off the new year with a game of Buy, Sell, Hold. There are a lot of unknowns as we start the year: Who will win the party nominations for president? Will a third party candidate break through? What will come of former president Donald Trump’s legal liability? And ultimately, who will win the White House, the House of Representatives and Senate? There are betting markets for just about all of these unknowns, so Galen asks the crew to make an assessment of the going odds.
They also discuss potential wildcards heading into the new year: What issues might motivate voters? How will congressional dysfunction play out? How about October surprises?