EVENT: Geopolitics - the bedrock of the new investment order
Nov 21, 2024
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Jo Masters, Chief Economist at Barrenjoey Capital Partners, brings 25 years of economic insight, while Ben Samild, Chief Investment Officer at the Future Fund, leverages his extensive hedge fund expertise. Hervé Lemahieu, Director of Research at the Lowy Institute, dives into strategic geopolitics. They explore rising geopolitical tensions, the implications of U.S.-China relations, and the impact of political shifts on global markets. The discussion also covers inflation, decarbonization, and the significance of geopolitical risk in shaping investment strategies.
Geopolitical tensions are reshaping investor strategies, compelling businesses to integrate political risk analysis into economic planning and decision-making.
The rise of populism and electoral shifts worldwide impact governance and economic policies, creating uncertainty and potential challenges for incumbents.
Significant conflicts in regions like Europe and the Middle East illustrate the volatility in international relations, prompting concerns over global stability and trade.
Deep dives
Shifting Geopolitical Certainties
The discussion highlights a significant realignment in the geopolitical landscape, marking a departure from the post-Cold War certainties that long defined international relations. Increasingly, assumptions about the rise of liberal democracy, global trade, and the stability of international relations are being challenged. Events in regions such as Ukraine and Gaza exemplify this volatility, raising questions about the validity of previously accepted norms. The emergence of geopolitical risk is now a critical consideration for businesses and governments, influencing economic strategies and international policies.
Economic Implications of Political Changes
The recent electoral victory of Donald Trump is expected to have substantial economic ramifications both in the U.S. and globally, particularly for countries like Australia. Analysts note that Trump's policies may lead to rising inflation in the U.S. and reduced growth, with significant repercussions for the Asia-Pacific region. Australia's economy could face particular challenges due to its reliance on Chinese growth, as a slowdown there could negatively impact exports. Furthermore, the potential for aggressive tariffs and trade tensions under Trump's administration could disrupt economic relations and supply chains.
Populism and Its Global Impact
The rise of populist leaders, exemplified by Trump's return, reflects broader global trends in electoral politics, impacting incumbents across democracies. The recent global elections indicate a shift against established governments, revealing a growing discontent among voters with the status quo. This trend suggests that various political systems are facing challenges, as citizens respond to complex international issues that transcend traditional party lines. The potential for populist politics to shape policies in the coming years poses both risks and opportunities for governance worldwide.
Geopolitical Risk and Investment Strategy
The integration of geopolitical analysis into investment strategies is becoming increasingly essential for investors and corporations. Fluctuations in political climates can lead to significant shifts in market dynamics, necessitating active scenario planning to mitigate risks. Decision-makers are encouraged to assess leading indicators and prepare adaptive strategies rather than relying on static economic models, which may not account for geopolitical shocks. The ongoing trend illustrates a growing acknowledgment of the interconnectedness of global politics and economic outcomes.
Conflict Risks and Regional Dynamics
A notable concern in discussions of geopolitical risk is the increasing likelihood of conflicts, particularly in the absence of a clear global power structure. The notion of multiple regional theaters, each with its unique dynamics and potential for conflict, underscores the complexity of current international relations. Observers fear that a more isolationist U.S. under Trump may embolden other nations to pursue aggressive strategies without traditional oversight. This multifaceted geopolitical landscape requires vigilant monitoring as the global balance of power continues to evolve.
On Tuesday 12 November our Lowy Institute experts and senior investment leaders discussed key geopolitical risks and trends, and the impacts on financial markets and investment portfolios. Rising geopolitical tensions are testing the resilience of global businesses and challenging existing growth strategies. Conflict in Europe and the Middle East and escalating US–China competition have the attention of business leaders. Moreover, 2024 is the year of national elections, with more than 60 countries and nearly 50 percent of the global population heading to the polls. Business leaders increasingly see geopolitics as a major risk to global growth and view political transitions as the leading emergent risk. Our panellists considered major paradigm shifts including inflation regimes, climate and decarbonisation, technology disruption, populism, deglobalisation and changing asset class correlations. They also discussed the consequences of these shifts for Australia, Asia and the world. Sam Roggeveen will convene this conversation with Lowy Institute Research Director Hervé Lemahieu, Barrenjoey Chief Economist Jo Masters and Future Fund Chief Investment Officer Ben Samild, which will include questions from the audience.
Panellists Jo Masters is Chief Economist of Barrenjoey Capital Partners. She focuses on trends across the economy and financial markets and has been a highly regarded part of the economic debate in Australia for 25 years. Hervé Lemahieu is Director of Research at the Lowy Institute. His research interests include strategy and geopolitics, global governance, Australian foreign policy, Southeast Asia and data analysis. He started his career at Oxford Analytica informing government and business policy on geopolitical risk in Asia. Ben Samild is Chief Investment Officer at the Future Fund. In his former role as Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Mr Samild led the teams responsible for investing Listed Equites and Alternatives strategies and led the integration of whole-of-portfolio insights as part of the Fund’s joined-up investment approach. Sam Roggeveen is Director the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute. He is the author of The Echidna Strategy: Australia’s Search for Power and Peace. Sam also serves as Lead Editor at the Lowy Institute, and editor of the Lowy Institute Papers.