Michel Cousins: THE LONG AND WINDING ROAD TO PEACE IN LIBYA

Gudrun Harrer in conversation with Michel Cousins

THE LONG AND WINDING ROAD TO PEACE IN LIBYA

Libya, 14 years after the overthrow of the regime of Muammar al-Gaddafi, is a country shattered by war, internal divisions and power plays of external actors. The national wealth like oil ressources which should guarantee economic success, and social stability and development, remains contested and is distributed along lines of political affiliation. The UN-led process to unify the power centres of Tripoli in the West and Benghazi in the East was supposed to create united institutions but was inconclusive. Elections are on the agenda, but many fear the results could exacerbate the rivalry and ignite a new round of conflict, as they did in 2014. It is impossible to understand the set up of Libyan politics and society without looking at the history and social makeup of today’s Libya, which Michel Cousins calls a “community of communities” – which, however, can be of very different nature, like tribal, regional or related to towns or neighborhoods. Another important source of legitimacy is military power. People accepted Gaddafi, as they now accept Khalifa Haftar in the East, because he was/is in control. Can – or how can – Libya stay united as a state and not turn to a military dictatorship with one strong man on top? The answer would be some sort of devolved – federal? – system in which there is a nominal head of state (possibly even a constitutional monarch) but one in which the communities have a voice. Only then also elections can work.

The European Union, too, has a strong interest in a stable and prosperous Libya which during the last years has developed into a transit country for African immigration to Europe and a hub for modern slavery mafias that commit terrible crimes and human rights violations. The EU’s cooperation with Libyan authorities and other political or military forces on migration issues has been criticized by NGO’s as morally bankruptcy. Can we do better to support Libya’s civil society on the democratic aspirations?

Michel Cousins, analyst and writer on Libya

Gudrun Harrer, Senior Editor, Der Standard; Lecturer in Modern History and Politics of the Middle East at the University of Vienna and the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna