News: WARNING: Another Ominous Sign For The Housing Market Just Surfaced
Sep 19, 2023
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In this podcast, Chris MacIntosh and Lyn Alden discuss the warning signs for the housing market, such as the decrease in mortgage refinancing demand and the effects of refinancing on the real estate market. They also delve into the issues surrounding mortgage rates, applications, and the rise in adjustable rate mortgages, highlighting the potential impact on housing prices.
Low mortgage demand indicates vulnerability in the housing market and a slight increase in supply could lead to declining prices.
Recent trends in mortgage applications show a significant drop in refinancing and purchasing power, signaling an alarming state of the real estate market.
Deep dives
Low Mortgage Demand Indicates Impact on Housing Prices
The podcast discusses the significance of low mortgage demand, comparing it to levels not seen since 1996. Despite the housing market being in a vulnerable state, with fundamentals not aligning, the low demand reflects how a slight increase in supply can have a dramatic effect on prices. The speaker reflects on past experiences, recalling a time of remarkably low demand when buyers were scarce, and even foreclosed properties were available at significantly reduced prices. Today's demand is even lower, indicating that additional supply as small as a few hundred thousand homes could lead to declining prices.
Implication of Mortgage Application Trends
The podcast highlights the recent trends in mortgage applications. While the average contract interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has increased slightly, demand for refinancing has dropped significantly from a year ago. This reduction in refinancing indicates a lower level of purchasing power in the economy, as homeowners have extracted less value from their homes. Applications for purchasing homes have also decreased compared to last year, with a 27% decline. These figures, which are notably lower than the already low numbers from a year ago, illustrate the alarming state of the real estate market, where even small increases in supply could trigger a decline in home prices.
Sinking Mortgage Applications and the Historical Perspective
The podcast delves into the historical context of the current mortgage application levels. Notably, mortgage applications have reached their lowest point since 1996, even lower than during the depths of the previous housing market crisis. The speaker highlights personal experiences from the time of the Great Financial Crisis, describing an abundance of unsold homes on the market with no buyers. Currently, demand has plummeted to unsettling levels, despite prices remaining somewhat elevated. With the market balanced precariously, a slight increase in supply and the persistently low demand may escalate into a significant decline in nominal home prices.
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✅Check out my private, online investment community (Rebel Capitalist Pro) with Chris MacIntosh, Lyn Alden and many more for $1!! click here https://georgegammon.com/pro