Enterprise Security Weekly (Audio) Why are cybersecurity predictions so bad? - ESW #440
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Jan 5, 2026 Explore the unpredictable world of cybersecurity predictions and why they often miss the mark, from logical fallacies to cognitive biases. Delve into common forecasts for 2025 and the realities that actually unfolded. The discussion includes risks associated with 5G, telecom compromises, and the allure of AI in attacks. Learn about the myths surrounding cyber cost claims and the surprisingly persistent vulnerabilities in identity systems. The hosts also touch on data hoarding risks and the challenges posed by deepfake technology.
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Hosts Share Recent Injury Stories
- Jackie and Adrian share recent personal injuries and how recovery felt like 'defragging' or a shock to the system.
- The stories humanize the hosts and segue into the episode's theme about unexpected events.
Predictions Often Are Just Observations
- Many cybersecurity predictions are just observations of current trends rather than true forecasts.
- Predictions often fail because they ignore nuance, complexity, and what people actually do.
Human Irrationality Breaks Forecasts
- Predictors often ignore human irrationality and assume rational responses.
- That leads to wildly optimistic or impractical forecasts like universal flying cars or mass behavioral change.