NBC News and MSNBC National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki joins the hosts to analyze polling and voter data ahead of the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary. They also discuss Trump's 14th Amendment ballot woes, the GOP primary in Iowa, and Joe Biden's reelection strategy.
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Quick takeaways
Trump's strong lead in Iowa indicates his strong position in the GOP primary.
A strong second-place showing in Iowa can provide momentum and position candidates as challengers to Trump.
Trump's growing support among evangelical Christians in Iowa is a significant development in Republican politics.
Deep dives
Trump is the frontrunner in Iowa
According to recent polling, Trump has a significant lead in Iowa, with over 50% support among Republican voters. This places him well ahead of his rivals, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, who are polling at 19% and 16% respectively. Trump's lead in Iowa is reminiscent of George W. Bush's lead in the 2000 Republican primary, indicating a strong position for Trump in the state.
Iowa caucuses may not be decisive, but second place matters
While the Iowa caucuses historically have not determined the Republican nominee, a strong second-place showing can provide much-needed momentum and claim a moral victory. Candidates like DeSantis and Haley may aim for a strong second-place finish to position themselves as the main challengers to Trump. The race in Iowa will shed light on the potential for any candidate to gain traction against Trump going forward.
Trump's rise among evangelical voters
One of the key factors in Trump's favor is his growing support among evangelical Christians in Iowa. In the 2016 caucuses, Trump finished a distant second among evangelicals, but recent polling shows him leading by nearly 30 points among this crucial voting bloc. This support extends beyond Iowa, with Trump also leading among evangelicals in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and other primary states. The shift in evangelicals' support for Trump is a significant development in Republican politics.
Challenges in comparing Trump to past leaders
Although there are comparisons being made between Trump and past leaders like George W. Bush, caution is needed when making such comparisons. The dynamics and context have changed significantly since Bush's time. While Trump's support among evangelicals is strong, the perception and label of him as a dictator or authoritarian figure may not resonate with all voters. Clear and specific messaging will be necessary to effectively make the case that Trump's character and actions are contrary to democratic values.
The pressure is on DeSantis to perform well in Iowa
DeSantis has invested more in Iowa and needs a strong showing to build momentum for the nomination. He has focused on winning the support of key leaders in Iowa, such as Governor Kim Reynolds and Bob Vanderplatz. However, even if DeSantis secures second place in Iowa, it must be a significant second to make an impact. The profile of the Iowa electorate and DeSantis' efforts in the state make it crucial for him to achieve a strong result.
Haley has a better chance in New Hampshire
Haley's campaign sees New Hampshire as a key opportunity for success. She is positioned well in New Hampshire due to her strength among independent voters and her competitive polling numbers compared to Trump. While Iowa is more challenging for her, a strong second-place finish in Iowa could provide her with the necessary momentum to perform well in New Hampshire and potentially make the race more interesting. The challenge for Haley is to expand her support beyond her current base and appeal to a wider range of Republican voters.
Tommy joins Dan from the campaign trail in Iowa to discuss the latest in the GOP primary, Trump's 14th Amendment ballot woes in Maine and Colorado, and Joe Biden's reelection strategy. Then, Dan and NBC News and MSNBC National Political Correspondent Steve Kornacki dig into polling and voter data ahead of the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary and look at what the numbers might mean for the 2024 Presidential election.
For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here. For a transcript of this episode, please email transcripts@crooked.com and include the name of the podcast.
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