The podcast discusses recent central bank decisions and the problem with short-end pricing in Canada. They also analyze the implications of the latest Treasury refunding announcement and the path of swap spreads. The hosts have a friendly disagreement on whether the belly is cheap or rich in Canada.
The accuracy of inflation measurements by the Bank of Canada is questioned, suggesting a need for a change in focus and communication strategies.
The surplus in tax receipts has led to negative bill supply, delaying the urgency of quantitative tightening (QT) and potentially allowing for reinvestment back into repo.
Deep dives
Central Bank Confidence and Policy
The podcast episode begins by discussing the confidence of central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada, in reaching their inflation targets. Despite measured inflation coming down, the surrounding macro data does not confirm the inflation measurements. The podcast suggests that the Fed may cut interest rates in the future if inflation reaches its target and strong growth persists. In Canada, the inflation measures have not decreased as much as expected, leading to questions about the accuracy of the measurements. The Bank of Canada may have to change its focus and communication strategies to address this issue.
Correlation Between Net Negative Bill Supply and Quantitative Tightening (QT)
The podcast addresses the net negative bill supply and its interaction with QT. It mentions that the surplus in tax receipts led to the current negative bill supply, allowing the Treasury to keep coupons constant in the near future. The surplus also affects the timing of QT, delaying its urgency. The discussion highlights the role of reserve money and the potential reinvestment back into repo. It also touches on Cora, the persistent deviation of short-term interest rates from the target rate, and how the Bank of Canada is buying time to wait for the reinvestment period.
Canadian Swap Spreads and Duration Views
The podcast analyzes Canadian swap spreads and duration views. It mentions the decrease in spreads and suggests that the decline is not solely a made-in-Canada story but a result of a larger move in rates. The discussion focuses on factors such as mortgage production, liabilities of banks, and seasonal issuance patterns in provincial bonds that influence spread movements. The duration of rates and possible trading strategies, like butterflies, are also mentioned. The podcast concludes by highlighting the personal views of the speakers and the need to see how these views play out.
Ian is joined by Jeremy Saunders and the duo begin the show discussing recent central bank decisions. With four major central banks abandoning their tightening bias, the data has undermined the market reaction by showing a stronger underlying economy. Jeremy talks about the problem with short-end pricing in Canada versus the United States, while Ian shows why US and Canadian inflation is more comparable than meets the eye. Jeremy provides his view on the latest Treasury refunding announcement and the implications on QT, while Ian discusses why recent BoC measures to bring CORRA back to target won’t work. The duo spend some time opining on the path of swap spreads, and have a friendly disagreement on whether the belly is cheap or rich in Canada.
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