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Steven McClurg: The Bitcoin Top Was Oct 4th — Prepare For Another 30% Drop?

10 snips
Dec 19, 2025
Steven McClurg, CEO and founder of Canary Capital, dives deep into the current crypto landscape, arguing that the Bitcoin peak may have already passed. He discusses the rise of crypto ETFs and how they simplify access to digital assets for retail investors. McClurg highlights key drivers behind market changes, including miner capitulation and liquidity issues, forecasting another 30% drop. They also explore the evolving role of stablecoins and the broader regulatory environment shaping the future of crypto. Insightful yet sobering analysis from a market expert!
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INSIGHT

Bitcoin Cycle Peak Might Be Past

  • Steve McClurg believes the Bitcoin cycle peak was on October 4 and the market is already down ~30% from that peak.
  • He expects another ~30% drawdown with a trough likely mid-2026 before a recovery tied to rate cuts and liquidity improvements.
ADVICE

Plan For Smarter ETF Structures

  • Consider actively managed or unique index ETFs for crypto as the next product evolution.
  • Canary plans differentiated index and active approaches but must work within current listing rules.
INSIGHT

Basis Trade Drives ETF Flows

  • The basis trade and futures availability materially drive ETF flows and overall crypto price action.
  • When basis attractiveness collapses, ETF inflows stop and spot prices often fall as trades unwind.
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