We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network BTC158: Systemic Bond Issues & Bitcoin's Impact w/ James Lavish (Bitcoin Podcast)
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Nov 29, 2023 
James Lavish, a finance and macroeconomics expert who manages a VC firm, shares crucial insights into the current economic landscape. He discusses alarming trends like failed treasury auctions and recession fears. Lavish also delves into the dynamics of the bond market and the potential effects on Bitcoin, including an expected price surge in 2024. With 70% of Bitcoin held immobile, he highlights the growing institutional interest and the upcoming price discovery phase, urging listeners to rethink their investment strategies.
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Market Complacency and Narrow Breadth
- Major market indexes like Dow and NASDAQ approach all-time highs, driven by a few large-cap companies like Apple and Microsoft.
- Smaller-cap stocks and bonds have experienced significant sell-offs, indicating underlying market weakness despite index performance.
Fed Backstop and Market Conditioning
- Market complacency stems from the expectation of a Fed backstop, encouraging risky investments in anticipation of intervention.
- This behavior is driven by the belief that the Fed will prevent significant market drawdowns, especially in an election year.
Illiquidity of Commercial Real Estate
- Illiquid assets like commercial real estate, heavily present on bank balance sheets, face potential impairment of 70-80%.
- This contrasts with the liquid assets involved in the Silicon Valley Bank situation, where a backstop facility was easily implemented.