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What Trump wants to gain from his latest tariff threat

Jul 11, 2025
Joseph Steinberg, an economics associate professor at the University of Toronto, dives into Trump's recent tariff threats against Canada. He explains how these tariffs are more about negotiation leverage than actual production shifts. Canada isn't uniquely targeted; other countries are similarly affected. Steinberg highlights that despite the proposed 35% tariff, many imports might still qualify for exemptions under the USMCA, limiting their impact. He also discusses the strategic nature of these tariffs and their long-term effects on production decisions.
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INSIGHT

Canada Not Singled Out

  • Canada is not uniquely targeted by Trump's tariff threats; other countries face similar threats.
  • These tariff threats align with Trump's pre-scheduled timeline for summer trade negotiations.
INSIGHT

USMCA Exemptions Lessen Tariff Impact

  • The 35% tariff targets only non-USMCA compliant goods, exempting most Canadian exports.
  • Effective tariffs on Canadian imports remain near 1-2% due to high compliance with USMCA rules.
INSIGHT

Tariffs Drive USMCA Compliance Up

  • Complying with USMCA requires costly paperwork and meeting rules of origin, especially in manufacturing.
  • Higher tariffs make compliance economically preferable, increasing the rate of USMCA compliance among exporters.
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