Tis This Inflation Transitory with CME Group Economist Erik Norland

There’s a new word in the financial lexicon. Transitory. And it all has to do with whether recent moves higher in prices of everything from lumber to copper to labor are the first signs of 1970s type inflation, or….as the Fed believes, is just “transitory” and will work itself out once the pandemic is over. We’re sitting down with Executive Director and Senior Economist of CME Group, Erik Norland, to discuss just what he sees in the commodity space, including a first for our pod – charts during the video portion!

Erik dishes on his background, how he ended up in London, Bayesian models, if you can be an economist without slides, Trillions, the devastation in India, the massive amount of debt in China, inflationary vs deflationary pressures, the craziness that is the hedonic CPI adjustments, infrastructure plans, R&D spending <> materials spending, if Gold is in trouble, why Europe’s lagging, whether there’s enough money to buy meme stocks/crypto AND physical goods to cause inflation, what options prices are saying about agriculture markets, and much more. Join our interesting conversation.

Chapters:

00:00-02:40=Intro

02:41-12:00=The CME’s Euro Step

12:01-27:09=Fiscal Stimulus & Inflation during the Pandemic

27:10-48:27=Measuring Inflation & What about Deflation

48:28-55:28=The MMT Theory & China’s Debt

55:29-58:53=How Injured is India?

58:54-01:05:02=Agriculture, Energy & The Importance of Water

01:05:03-01:13:21=Fat Tails in Agriculture

01:13:22-01:16:54=Favorites

Read more of Erik’s research on CME Group’s website here: https://www.cmegroup.com/education/featured-reports/bios/erik-norland.html

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