3 Takeaways™ Why Innocent People Plead Guilty (#286)
Jan 27, 2026
Jed Rakoff, a longtime federal judge and former prosecutor and defense lawyer, tackles why innocent people plead guilty. He explains how mandatory minimums and plea discounts pressure defendants. He outlines the hidden power of prosecutors, U.S. mass incarceration patterns, and practical reforms to reduce wrongful guilty pleas.
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Harsh Laws Drive Innocent Pleas
- Harsh mandatory sentences and career-offender laws push even innocent people to plead guilty to avoid catastrophic trial risk.
- Jed Rakoff estimates roughly 10% of imprisoned defendants are actually innocent due to these pressures.
The Trial Penalty Explains Plea Deals
- Plea bargains typically reduce sentences to about one-half or one-third of trial sentences, creating a strong 'trial penalty.'
- Defendants accept harsh but smaller plea terms to avoid much longer mandatory sentences if convicted at trial.
Prosecutors, Not Judges, Now Set Sentences
- Mandatory minimums effectively shift sentencing power from judges to prosecutors who negotiate secret plea deals.
- This produces wide, irrational sentencing variation depending on individual prosecutors' choices.
