The Intelligence from The Economist Baby bust: China’s census
May 12, 2021
Simon Rabinovich, Asia economics editor for The Economist, and Alice Fullwood, Wall Street correspondent, delve into China's latest census revealing a looming baby bust. They discuss the impending economic challenges of an aging population and declining birth rates. Rabinovich highlights how migration patterns affect workforce dynamics, while Fullwood explores the rise of central bank digital currencies, or 'govcoins,' and their potential to reshape monetary policy and access to banking, alongside the risks they pose to the private banking sector.
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China's Demographic Shift
- China's population, the world's largest, is growing but slowing down.
- The latest census reveals a significant drop in births, suggesting a peak within the decade.
Census Scrutiny
- China's census results were delayed and met with scrutiny.
- Officials emphasized positive aspects like overall population growth, but experts advise caution due to underlying trends.
Data Discrepancies
- Some inconsistencies exist in China's census data, potentially overestimating the population.
- Despite this, the trend of rapid aging and declining birth rates is undeniable.