Investopoly Ep 378: The one, evidence-based factor that predicts property price movements
In this data-driven episode, Stuart explores what really predicts property price movements, beyond the headlines about population growth. Using lending volume data across major Australian cities, Stuart shows why borrowing activity is one of the most reliable indicators of short-term property price trends. He compares trends in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth, highlighting how lending volumes often correlate far more strongly with price growth than population alone. Stuart also examines investor participation across the states, noting that Melbourne and Perth may offer compelling opportunities based on current lending patterns and market dynamics.
He then answers a listener's question from Steve, who is managing two investment properties in a trust for his daughters and is considering the best way to use $170K in savings. Should he pay down debt, buy a third property, or invest in ETFs for long-term diversification? Stuart discusses the pros and cons of each path, balancing risk tolerance, timing, and goals.
Whether you're watching the market closely or managing a multi-property portfolio, this episode unpacks how lending drives price cycles and offers practical frameworks to help you decide what to do next. A must-listen for property investors looking for clarity and a smarter edge.
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