Real Vision: Finance & Investing Oil, Metals, and More Geopolitical Risk | Macro Mondays: Feb. 2, 2026
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Feb 2, 2026 They unpack rising U.S.–Iran tensions and scenarios that could jolt oil and shipping. They discuss a surprising ISM print and how a nascent U.S. capex cycle may ripple through equities, bitcoin, and base metals. They explain the silver flash crash, the mechanics behind it, and reactions from the market. They explore U.S. moves on strategic mineral stockpiles and supply‑chain weaponization amid U.S.–China decoupling.
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ISM Jump Signals CapEx Cycle Restart
- The ISM manufacturing jump to 52.6 signals a cyclical US capex comeback driven by bonus depreciation incentives.
- That rise typically boosts cyclical assets like capex-sensitive equities, base metals, and Bitcoin.
Silver's Unprecedented Volatility Cleansed Positioning
- Friday's silver move was unprecedented with roughly 30% intraday swings and massive ETF turnover that far exceeded norms.
- Exchanges raising margins and volatility rules will force many funds to cut metal exposures and rebalance capital elsewhere.
Avoid Heavy Silver Directional Bets Now
- Avoid heavy directional exposure to silver while intraday volatility can swing 30% within days.
- Allocate to niches with better risk-return rather than chasing highly erratic metal moves, Andreas advises.