Ep.1115 - Reference Class Forecasting

In this podcast we cover:

• What is reference class forecasting?
• Why your project is not different?
• What you can do to better plan your projects.

In this episode, I explore the power of reference classes in construction planning. Inspired by How Big Things Get Done and challenged by Kate during our Guadalajara bootcamp, I realized how often we take shortcuts with data and assume our projects are different. I break down what reference classes are, why they matter, and how to use them to forecast schedule and budget more realistically. I also share how Elevate’s planning system, macro plans as promises and norm plans as targets, perfectly aligns with this principle. We talk about the danger of wishful thinking, the importance of building a project database, and how lean techniques can help us beat the average once we have promised responsibly. This is a practical and honest conversation about planning with evidence, not ego.

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Also, here are links to our YouTube Channels:

· Jason Schroeder YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4xpRYvrW5Op5Ckxs4vDGDg

· LeanTakt YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/leanTakt

· LeanSuper YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCzQDevqQP19L4LePuqma3Fg/featured

· LeanSurvey YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC-Ztn3okFhyB_3p5nmMKnsw