Interactive Brokers Chief Strategist, Steve Sosnick, discusses market correlation, dispersion's impact on volatility, and the effects of buy writing and short vol strategies on the options market. They explore the implications of a rising dollar and oil prices, the correlation between assets and VIX, and the impact of buy, buy, write ETFs. They also discuss steep skews and innovative trading strategies utilizing option combinations.
The recent market downturn can be attributed to factors such as narrowing market leadership, rising yields, a stronger dollar, and higher oil prices.
The concentration of stocks in the 'Magnificent Seven' has influenced index volatility, creating a complacent sentiment among investors.
Deep dives
Market Volatility and Factors Contributing to Recent Market Moves
The recent market downturn and increased volatility can be attributed to several factors, including narrowing market leadership, rising yields, a stronger dollar, and higher oil prices. These factors have collectively contributed to a 5%+ decline in various indexes. The delayed realization of these factors and the absence of expected monetary accommodation from the Federal Reserve have impacted market sentiment. The rising dollar and oil prices, along with seasonality, have played a role in the market correction.
The Impact of Concentrated Stocks on Index Volatility
The market has witnessed a significant concentration of stocks, particularly in the 'Magnificent Seven', which has heavily influenced index volatility. These stocks tend to move together, but not necessarily in sync with the broader market. The equal-weighted versions of indexes have shown lackluster performance compared to the cap-weighted versions. The heavy weighting of these stocks in the index has dampened overall volatility, contributing to a narrower range of index movements. The dispersion of returns between these concentrated stocks and the rest of the market has created a complacent sentiment among investors.
Correlation, Dispersion, and Volatility
The correlation and dispersion of stock returns play a crucial role in determining market volatility. Correlation measures whether stocks move in unison or exhibit different directions. When stocks move in opposition to each other, as seen in the market recently, it dampens volatility. Historical volatility is influenced by the covariance of stock movements within an index. In the case of the 'Magnificent Seven' stocks, their overall movement in opposition to other index components has a depressive effect on volatility. The rise in options writing, including covered call strategies, has contributed to the lower volatility levels, as investors have become comfortable selling volatility.
This week we have the pleasure of welcoming back to the show, Interactive Brokers Chief Strategist, Steve Sosnick. They discuss markets, correlation & dispersions impact on volatility, impact of buy writing and short vol strategies on the options markets.