The Dividend Cafe Tuesday - July 29, 2025
5 snips
Jul 29, 2025 Market movements take center stage as the S&P 500 ends its six-day winning streak. Consumer confidence is looking up, while job openings remain steady. A dip in home prices catches attention amidst changing economic indicators. With the bond market showing declining yields, chatter about a possible Fed rate cut grows louder. Additionally, the discussion shifts to the role of corporate trustees in estate planning, underscoring the significance of trust structures. It's a moment of reflection as listeners anticipate the upcoming economic data and FOMC meeting.
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Market Pause and Fed Rate Cut Odds
- S&P 500 ended a six-day winning streak with a slight decline, signaling a market pause.
- Bond yields dropped; markets price in roughly a two-thirds chance of Fed rate cut by September.
Trade Deals and Economic Indicators
- Trade deals with Japan, India, and the EU plus lower inflation and housing weakness increase rate cut probability.
- Consumer confidence beat expectations but acts more as a lagging than a forward-looking indicator.
Labor Market and Housing Slowdown
- June job openings align with consensus but show a slight decline from previous months.
- Case-Shiller Home Price Index dipped 0.2% in May with year-over-year gains slowing to 2.8%, reflecting a cooling housing market.